If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. Having said that, after a brief look, JELD-WEN Holding (NYSE:JELD) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on JELD-WEN Holding is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.072 = US$166m ÷ (US$3.0b - US$679m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, JELD-WEN Holding has an ROCE of 7.2%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Building industry average of 16%.

In the above chart we have measured JELD-WEN Holding's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering JELD-WEN Holding for free.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There is reason to be cautious about JELD-WEN Holding, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 11%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect JELD-WEN Holding to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 1.1% in the last five years. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

If you want to know some of the risks facing JELD-WEN Holding we've found 2 warning signs (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.