When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. So after we looked into iHeartMedia (NASDAQ:IHRT), the trends above didn't look too great.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for iHeartMedia, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.043 = US$262m ÷ (US$6.9b - US$743m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, iHeartMedia has an ROCE of 4.3%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Media industry average of 8.1%.

In the above chart we have measured iHeartMedia's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering iHeartMedia for free.

What Can We Tell From iHeartMedia's ROCE Trend?

The trend of returns that iHeartMedia is generating are raising some concerns. The company used to generate 7.6% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. What's equally concerning is that the amount of capital deployed in the business has shrunk by 40% over that same period. The combination of lower ROCE and less capital employed can indicate that a business is likely to be facing some competitive headwinds or seeing an erosion to its moat. Typically businesses that exhibit these characteristics aren't the ones that tend to multiply over the long term, because statistically speaking, they've already gone through the growth phase of their life cycle.

The Bottom Line On iHeartMedia's ROCE

In short, lower returns and decreasing amounts capital employed in the business doesn't fill us with confidence. Unsurprisingly then, the stock has dived 82% over the last three years, so investors are recognizing these changes and don't like the company's prospects. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

iHeartMedia does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

While iHeartMedia isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.