Are We In A Stock Market Bubble? Hedge Fund Guru Ray Dalio Weighs In, Sees Magnificent 7 Stocks As 'Bit Frothy'
Are We In A Stock Market Bubble? Hedge Fund Guru Ray Dalio Weighs In, Sees Magnificent 7 Stocks As 'Bit Frothy'
The U.S. stock market is not in a bubble, according to Ray Dalio, the former co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund. Despite the market's recent significant rallies, Dalio's analysis suggests that the market is not exhibiting typical bubble characteristics.
最大的对冲基金Bridgewater Associates的前联席首席投资官雷·达利奥表示，美国股市没有陷入泡沫。尽管市场最近出现了大幅上涨，但达利奥的分析表明，市场并未表现出典型的泡沫特征。
What Happened: In a comprehensive analysis shared on LinkedIn, Dalio detailed the indicators he uses to spot market bubbles. These include high prices compared to traditional value measures, unsustainable conditions, an influx of new and inexperienced buyers, widespread bullish sentiment, a high percentage of purchases financed by debt, and a significant amount of forward and speculative purchases.
发生了什么：在LinkedIn上分享的一份综合分析中，达利奥详细介绍了他用来发现市场泡沫的指标。其中包括与传统价值衡量标准相比的高价格、不可持续的状况、新买家和缺乏经验的买家涌入、普遍的看涨情绪、高比例的债务融资购买以及大量的远期和投机性购买。
Dalio's application of these criteria to the U.S. stock market led him to conclude that the market is not in a bubble. He noted that the market, on the whole, is in the mid-range (52nd percentile) and does not align with previous bubbles.
达利奥将这些标准应用于美国股市，这使他得出结论，市场没有陷入泡沫。他指出，总体而言，市场处于中等水平（第 52 个百分位），与之前的泡沫不一致。
Dalio also discussed the "Magnificent 7" group of companies that have contributed significantly to U.S. stock market gains over the past year.
达利奥还讨论了在过去一年中为美国股市上涨做出重大贡献的 “Magnificent 7” 集团公司。
"The Mag-7 is measured to be a bit frothy but not in a full-on bubble," he said. He noted that valuations are slightly high, given current and projected earnings, but he does not see excessive leverage or a surge of "new and naive buyers."
他说：“据测定，Mag-7有点泡沫，但不是完全泡沫状的。”他指出，考虑到当前和预计的收益，估值略高，但他认为杠杆率不会过高或 “新的天真买家” 激增。
However, Dalio noted that a significant correction could still occur, particularly if generative AI does not live up to the priced-in impact.
但是，达利奥指出，仍可能出现重大修正，尤其是在生成式人工智能没有达到定价影响的情况下。
Why It Matters: Dalio's analysis comes amid ongoing debates about the state of the U.S. stock market. In February, Capital Economics' John Higgins predicted that the current stock market bubble would continue to inflate until the end of 2025, driven by the narrative around artificial intelligence.
为何重要：达利奥的分析是在关于美国股市状况的持续辩论中进行的。2月，资本经济学的约翰·希金斯预测，在围绕人工智能的叙事的推动下，当前的股市泡沫将持续膨胀到2025年底。
However, the "Magnificent 7", which Dalio mentioned, has seen its fortunes diverge this year, according to Mike O'Rourke, the chief market strategist at Jones Trading, suggesting that the group's dominance over the stock market is waning.
但是，琼斯交易首席市场策略师迈克·奥罗克表示，达利奥提到的 “Magnificent 7” 今年的命运出现了分歧，这表明该集团在股市的主导地位正在减弱。
On a related note, Ark Invest's Chief Futurist Brett Winton this week predicted that real GDP growth could reach 7% annually on average in the current business cycle, surpassing the rate seen in any year since 1950, thanks to the impact of transformative technologies.
与此相关的是，Ark Invest的首席未来学家布雷特·温顿本周预测，由于变革性技术的影响，当前商业周期的实际国内生产总值平均年增长率可能达到7％，超过1950年以来的任何一年。
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed up 0.36% at $506.76, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) rose marginally to $389.95 and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 0.86% to $439, according to Benzinga Pro data. The three ETFs are up 7.5%, 3.4%, and 9%, respectively, so far this year.
Benzinga Pro的数据显示，周四，SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF信托（纽约证券交易所代码：SPY）收盘上涨0.36％，至506.76美元；SPDR道琼斯工业平均指数（纽约证券交易所代码：DIA）小幅上涨至389.95美元，以科技股为主的景顺QQ信托（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）上涨0.86％，至439美元。今年到目前为止，这三只ETF分别上涨了7.5％、3.4％和9％。