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Is Changzhou Almaden (SZSE:002623) A Risky Investment?

Is Changzhou Almaden (SZSE:002623) A Risky Investment?

常州奥玛登(深圳证券交易所:002623)是风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  02/26 00:37

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002623) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,看来聪明的货币知道债务(通常涉及破产)是一个非常重要的因素。我们可以看到,常州亚玛登股份有限公司(深圳证券交易所:002623)确实在其业务中使用了债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务会带来什么风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务可以帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东们可能会一无所获。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面影响。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先将现金和债务放在一起考虑。

What Is Changzhou Almaden's Debt?

常州阿尔玛登的债务是什么?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Changzhou Almaden had CN¥912.6m of debt, up from CN¥548.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.67b in cash, leading to a CN¥752.5m net cash position.

如下所示,截至2023年9月底,常州奥玛登的债务为9.126亿元人民币,高于去年同期的5.484亿元人民币。点击图片查看更多细节。但另一方面,它也有16.7亿元的现金,净现金状况为7.525亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002623 Debt to Equity History February 26th 2024
SZSE: 002623 2024 年 2 月 26 日债务与股本比率的历史记录

A Look At Changzhou Almaden's Liabilities

看看常州阿尔玛登的负债

According to the last reported balance sheet, Changzhou Almaden had liabilities of CN¥1.71b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥533.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.67b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.46b due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥882.3m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

根据上次报告的资产负债表,常州阿尔玛登的负债为17.1亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为5.334亿元人民币。除这些债务外,它有16.7亿元人民币的现金以及价值14.6亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有8.823亿元人民币 更多 流动资产超过总负债。

This excess liquidity suggests that Changzhou Almaden is taking a careful approach to debt. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Succinctly put, Changzhou Almaden boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

这种过剩的流动性表明常州奥玛登对债务采取了谨慎的态度。由于它拥有充足的资产,因此不太可能与贷款人发生麻烦。简而言之,常州阿尔玛登拥有净现金,因此可以公平地说,它没有沉重的债务负担!

Even more impressive was the fact that Changzhou Almaden grew its EBIT by 106% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Changzhou Almaden's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

更令人印象深刻的是,常州亚玛登的息税前利润在十二个月内增长了106%。这种提振将使未来偿还债务变得更加容易。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,未来的收益比什么都重要,将决定常州亚玛登未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Changzhou Almaden has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Changzhou Almaden burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。尽管常州奥玛登的资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得一看其将息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其建立(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度有多快。在过去的三年中,常州奥玛登烧掉了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况将在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着其使用债务的风险更大。

Summing Up

总结

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Changzhou Almaden has CN¥752.5m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And we liked the look of last year's 106% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Changzhou Almaden's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Changzhou Almaden you should know about.

尽管调查公司的债务总是明智的,但在这种情况下,常州阿尔玛登拥有7.525亿元人民币的净现金和不错的资产负债表。我们喜欢去年息税前利润同比增长106%的样子。那么常州奥玛登的债务有风险吗?在我们看来,情况并非如此。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现了一个你应该知道的常州亚玛登警告标志。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

当一切都说完之后,有时更容易将注意力集中在甚至不需要债务的公司上。读者现在可以100%免费访问净负债为零的成长型股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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