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Huishang Bank (HKG:3698) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 15% If They Invested Five Years Ago

Huishang Bank (HKG:3698) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 15% If They Invested Five Years Ago

徽商银行(HKG: 3698)如果投资者在五年前进行投资,他们将蒙受15%的损失
Simply Wall St ·  01/03 18:19

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (HKG:3698), since the last five years saw the share price fall 29%.

理想情况下,您的整体投资组合应超过市场平均水平。但主要的游戏是找到足够的赢家来抵消输家。在这一点上,一些股东可能会质疑他们对徽商银行股份有限公司(HKG: 3698)的投资,因为过去五年股价下跌了29%。

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

值得评估公司的经济是否与这些令人难以置信的股东回报同步发展,或者两者之间是否存在一些差异。因此,让我们这样做吧。

See our latest analysis for Huishang Bank

查看我们对徽商银行的最新分析

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说:从短期来看,市场是一台投票机,但从长远来看,它是一台称重机。研究市场情绪如何随时间推移而变化的一种方法是研究公司的股价与其每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, Huishang Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 9.2% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

尽管股价在五年内下跌,但徽商银行实际上设法做到了 增加 每股收益平均每年增长9.2%。因此,每股收益似乎不是了解市场如何估值股票的好指南。或者,市场此前可能非常乐观,因此尽管每股收益有所改善,但该股还是令人失望。

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

由于每股收益增长与股价下跌之间缺乏相关性,值得研究其他指标来了解股价走势。

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.

稳定的股息并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。尽管股价下跌的原因尚不完全明显,但仔细研究该公司的历史可能有助于解释这一点。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下图中查看收入和收入随着时间的推移而发生的变化(点击图表查看确切的数值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:3698 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 3rd 2024
SEHK: 3698 2024 年 1 月 3 日收益和收入增长

We know that Huishang Bank has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Huishang Bank in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

我们知道徽商银行最近提高了利润,但是未来会发生什么?您可以在这张未来利润估计的交互式图表中看到分析师对徽商银行的预测。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Huishang Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was -15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股价回报率外,投资者还应考虑股东总回报率(TSR)。基于股息再投资的假设,股东总回报率纳入了任何分拆或贴现资本筹集的价值以及任何股息。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,股东总回报率通常远高于股价回报率。碰巧的是,徽商银行过去5年的股东总回报率为-15%,超过了前面提到的股价回报率。因此,该公司支付的股息提高了 股东回报。

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

We're pleased to report that Huishang Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 1.8% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Huishang Bank you should know about.

我们很高兴地向大家报告,徽商银行的股东在一年内获得了 1.8% 的总股东回报率。当然,这包括股息。毫无疑问,最近的回报远好于五年内每年3%的股东总回报率损失。我们通常更看重短期内的长期表现,但最近的改善可能暗示业务出现了(积极的)转折点。尽管市场状况可能对股价产生的不同影响值得考虑,但还有其他因素更为重要。例如,考虑风险。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现了一个你应该知道的徽商银行警告标志。

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

当然,通过寻找其他地方,你可能会找到一笔不错的投资。因此,请看一下我们预计收益将增加的这份免费公司名单。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报率。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。华尔街只是没有持有上述任何股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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