share_log

Dollar Climbs: Have Investors Overdone The Dovish-Fed Trade?

Dollar Climbs: Have Investors Overdone The Dovish-Fed Trade?

美元攀升:投资者是否夸大了鸽派美联储的交易?
Benzinga ·  2023/12/04 10:57

The dollar inched higher on Monday as equity markets took a breather from their recent rally, leaving some investors wondering whether dovish calls on U.S. interest rates were becoming stretched.

由于股市从最近的涨势中稍作休息,周一美元小幅走高,这让一些投资者想知道对美国利率的鸽派呼吁是否变得紧张。

The dollar index (DXY), a weighted measure of the dollar's value against a basket of rival currencies, inched 0.3% higher to 103.57. Although still down from its 2023 peak above 107, the index has endured three-consecutive weeks of losses, working in contrast to equity markets which have soared since the end of October.

衡量美元兑一篮子竞争货币价值的加权指数——美元指数(DXY)小幅上涨0.3%,至103.57。尽管仍低于2023年的峰值107以上,但该指数已经连续三周下跌,这与自10月底以来股市的飙升形成鲜明对比。

"We suspect November's 3% decline was a bit too much. A bounce could lift it back to the 104.70-105.00 before it falls out of a favor again," said Marc Chandler, chief forex strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“我们怀疑11月份的3%跌幅有点过大。Bannockburn Global Forex首席外汇策略师马克·钱德勒表示,反弹可能会使其回升至104.70-105.00,然后再次失宠了。

Exchange traded funds that track dollar bullish behavior have moved lower in recent weeks, while those tracking bearish sentiment have increased. On Monday, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) was up 0.5%, while the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE:UDN) was down 0.3%.

追踪美元看涨行为的交易所交易基金最近几周走低,而追踪看跌情绪的交易所交易基金则有所增加。周一,景顺数据库美元指数看涨基金(纽约证券交易所代码:UUP)上涨0.5%,而景顺数据库美元指数看跌基金(纽约证券交易所代码:UDN)下跌0.3%。

Also Read: Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases

另请阅读:随着美联储降息乐观情绪增强,美元在11月下跌

Have Fed Rate Cut Expectations Become Overstretched?

美联储降息的预期是否已经捉襟见肘?

Much of the recent downtrend for the dollar and uptrend for the equity markets has been based around expectations the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.

最近的美元下跌趋势和股市的上涨趋势在很大程度上是基于对美联储将在2024年第一季度开始降息的预期。

These expectations have been underpinned by falling inflation rates, but not by any rhetoric from the Fed itself.

这些预期得到了通货膨胀率下降的支撑,但没有受到美联储本身的任何言论的支持。

"Rate cuts in the first half of 2024 are being priced into many economies given the downside recession risks and some more promising data on inflation. We disagree, and think that stickiness in inflation will keep central banks on hold for longer," said James Pomeroy, economist at HSBC.

“鉴于衰退下行风险和一些更有希望的通货膨胀数据,许多经济体都在考虑2024年上半年的降息。我们不同意,并认为通货膨胀的粘性将使各国央行停滞更长时间。” 汇丰银行经济学家詹姆斯·波默罗伊说。

Chairman Powell Retains Cautious Tone

鲍威尔主席保持谨慎的语气

Markets were a little jarred on Friday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declined to play the dovish card in an interview and, instead, called for restraint in drawing premature conclusions about future policy moves.

周五,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在接受采访时拒绝打鸽派牌,而是呼吁在过早得出有关未来政策举措的结论时保持克制,市场有些动荡。

"While lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, this progress is going to need to continue if we are to reach our 2% objective," he said.

他说:“尽管过去几个月较低的通胀数据值得欢迎,但如果我们要实现2%的目标,就需要继续取得这种进展。”

Powell added that if necessary, the Fed was still prepared to tighten policy rates further.

鲍威尔补充说,如有必要,美联储仍准备进一步收紧政策利率。

"Inflation is unlikely to sustain the very low levels seen in the post-global financial crisis years and central bankers have good reason to remain cautious about prematurely cutting interest rates. This suggests scope for the market to be disappointed in the pace of rate cuts," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

“通货膨胀不太可能维持后全球金融危机时期的极低水平,央行行长们有充分的理由对过早降息保持谨慎。这表明市场有可能对降息步伐感到失望。” 荷兰合作银行高级外汇策略师简·弗利说。

Now Read: Fed Chair Powell Remains Cautious: 'Premature' To Declare Victory On Inflation

立即阅读:美联储主席鲍威尔仍保持谨慎:宣布在通货膨胀问题上获胜 “为时过早”

Photo: Shutterstock

照片:Shutterstock

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发