Global IP protection leader on video content with strong technical track record
Surging demand for IP protection on streaming platforms to support growth
Expansion in China to catch the IP monetisation trend and go-overseas story
Bright growth prospect backed by supportive policy and wide customer base
What’s New
Background. Founded in 2005 and listed in HKEX in Jan 2018, Vobile (3738 HK) is a global leading SaaS provider for digital content asset protection and transaction. It is the ranked first in the world in terms of 2016 revenue with a worldwide market share of 7.5%, according to Frost & Sullivan. Vobile provides content protection and content monetisation solutions to help content owners identify potentially infringing content and reduce infringement[1]induced revenue loss. Its revenue grew at CAGR of 79% during FY18- FY21, mainly generated from: (1) Subscription services– consisting primarily of content protection (e.g., Video Tracker, watermark technologies) and channel management, and (2) value-added service consisting of content monetisation platforms to enable revenue-sharing for conventional home video distribution through online platforms. These two segments account for 36% and 63% of total revenue, respectively, as of 1H22. By region, the US and Mainland China contributed 59% and 41% of total revenue, respectively, in 1H22.
Industry growth: Growing IP protection demand riding on online video content explosion.
The online video platform market size is expected to expand at a CAGR of 18.4% between 2022-2028 to reach US$22.9bn by 2028 globally, according to Grandview research. In addition, traditional content parties such as Disney and Warner Bros are transforming to streaming media and direct sell-to-consumer, which is further driving the content transaction business and demand to protect their copyrights.
Industry growth: Supportive industry policy in China.
Chinese government’s latest 14th five-year plan (2021- 2025) guided that added value of core industries in the digital economy will reach Rmb150bn or 10% of GDP in 2025, representing a 16% 4-year CAGR. Among them, IP and patent protection is one of the key infrastructures to consolidate the digital economy, which has received supportive measures from the government.
Growth driver #1: Deepening social media platform revenue-sharing monetisation. Over 60% of Vobile revenue comes from value-added service, or revenue[1]sharing model by cooperated platforms. Further monetisation comes from wider access to client content assets. Vobile will help the content owners to maximize the value of its IPs property by tracing the copyright infringement and get revenue-sharing from the realized income. There are millions of video content on YouTube and Facebook which are IP-related content or re-created based on other popular IPs, which should favour leading IP right protection players like Vobile. In Aug 22, Vobile upgraded their contract with Warner Bros to help manage and monetise all its content in library on different social media platforms.
Growth driver #2: Expanding customer coverage via cross selling. Vobile is expanding its customer base from the tier-1 firm studio and IP owners to tier-2 and 3 players in the US and China. In 1H22, subscription-base revenue grew 136% to HK$202m, driven by increased customer number and recurring income. In addition to expanding customer coverage, the company expanded the scope and amount of content protection product under different scenarios. Vobile also cross-sells its diverse valued-added service product to existing customers to provide their new monetisation opportunities via new content distribution channels.
Growth driver #3: Catch IP protection trend in domestic market. Foreign movies and content created by leading global film studios enjoys high popularity in China. It leaves ample room for Vobile to leverage its unparalleled protection capabilities to promote content transaction in China. This business model is still at the early stage in China but the growth and trend are solid. We expect the company to register robust growth via (1) assisting content providers and owners to manage and monetise their content in downstream distributor or on emerging video channels such as Douyin, Kuaishou (1024 HK), Bilibili (BILI US), etc, and (2) assisting the domestic original content to go overseas, including obtaining advertising and other revenue sharing when distributed on overseas platforms like YouTube and Facebook.
Competitive advantage #1: Leading market position with strong customer base. As the leading digital content protector, Vobile customers consist of 178 global film studios (e.g, Paramount, Warner Bros, Universal) TV networks (e.g. HBO, BBC, NBC) and content owners (e.g. Disney (DIS US), Netflix (NFLX US), YouTube, iQiyi (IQ US), ByteDance) in the US and Asia. The well-established relationship with leading content partners enables it to cover wide video content and build up strong ecosystem on IP protection network.
Competitive advantage #2: Proven track record on technological capabilities. The company has the industry leading IP rights tracking capabilities including proprietary VDNA (fingerprint) and watermark technologies. The company’s core VDNA technology is designed to detect video content matches that have undergone manipulation by infringers enabling the platform to discover audio, video, and image content accurately and efficiently. Over the 17 years of business operations, the company has accumulated 10m+ VDNA assets, the largest video DNA database authorised by IP rights holders. The effectiveness of VDNA is evidenced by the global market leading position and high customer retention rate of 95%.
Competitive advantage #3: Business expansion via acquisition. The company acquired Particle culture Technologies in 2022 to further strengthen its leadership in content product offerings and expand its geographic reach in China. The Particle culture covered several video platforms in China and offers product solutions for video content on online video platform (e.g., Tencent Video, Bilibili) to integrate into broadcast and TV network in China. Along the way, Vobile made several significant acquisitions, namely Blayze (2014), Rentrak (2015), IP[1]Echelon (2018), the RightsID and ChannelID divisions of ZEFR (2019). These acquisitions enable the company to enlarge the business scale and expand customer coverage.
Financials and valuation. Vobile raised HK$74.7m in its initial public offering (IPO) on the HKEX in Jan 2018. In 1H22, revenue was HK$556m, up 74% y-o-y, and adjusted net profit increased by 39% to Hk$50m, adjusted net profit margin at 9%. Apart from that, Vobile has cash and cash equivalent of HK$438m and recorded a net operating cash inflow of HK$13m in 1H22. We expect Vobile to maintain 40% revenue growth in the next three years. If we were to assume a revenue growth of 40% for FY23, Vobile is trading at c.5x FY23 PS. The valuation is appealing vs. industry peers’ c.7x FY23 PS, (e.g. Weimob (2013 HK) and Kingdee (268 HK) on the back of a stronger growth profile. Key risks. (1) fail to retain existing major customers (2) earnings pressure due to expansion into new market
什么是新的
背景。Vobile(3738 HK)成立于2005年,于2018年1月在香港交易所上市,是全球领先的数字内容资产保护和交易SaaS提供商。根据弗罗斯特沙利文的数据,它在2016年收入方面位居世界第一,全球市场份额为7.5%。Vobile提供内容保护和内容货币化解决方案,以帮助内容所有者识别潜在的侵权内容并减少侵权 [1] 引起的收入损失。在2018财年至21财年,其收入以79%的复合年增长率增长,主要来自:(1)订阅服务——主要包括内容保护(例如视频追踪器、水印技术)和渠道管理,以及(2)由内容货币化平台组成的增值服务,旨在通过在线平台实现传统家庭视频分发的收入共享。截至上半年,这两个细分市场分别占总收入的36%和63%。按地区划分,美国和中国大陆在22年上半年分别贡献了总收入的59%和41%。
行业增长:随着在线视频内容的爆炸式增长,知识产权保护需求不断增长。
根据Grandview的研究,在线视频平台的市场规模预计将在2022-2028年间以18.4%的复合年增长率增长,到2028年在全球达到229亿美元。此外,迪士尼和华纳兄弟等传统内容方正在向流媒体和直接向消费者销售转型,这进一步推动了内容交易业务和保护其版权的需求。
行业增长:中国的支持性行业政策。
中国政府最新的第十四个五年计划(2021-2025)指导说,到2025年,数字经济中核心产业的增加值将达到1500亿元人民币,占GDP的10%,相当于4年的复合年增长率为16%。其中,知识产权和专利保护是巩固数字经济的关键基础设施之一,数字经济已获得政府的支持措施。
增长动力 #1: 深化社交媒体平台的收益分享货币化。Vobile收入的60%以上来自增值服务或合作平台的收入共享模式 [1]。进一步的盈利来自于对客户内容资产的更广泛访问。Vobile将通过追踪版权侵权行为来帮助内容所有者最大限度地提高其IP财产的价值,并从已实现的收入中获得收益分成。YouTube和Facebook上有数百万个视频内容是与IP相关的内容或基于其他热门IP重新创作的内容,这应该有利于Vobile等领先的知识产权保护参与者。8月22日,Vobile升级了与华纳兄弟的合同,以帮助其在不同的社交媒体平台上管理图书馆中的所有内容并从中获利。
增长动力 #2: 通过交叉销售扩大客户覆盖范围。Vobile正在将其客户群从一级公司工作室和知识产权所有者扩展到美国和中国的二级和三级玩家。在客户数量和经常性收入增加的推动下,2012年上半年,基于订阅的收入增长了136%,达到2.02亿港元。除了扩大客户覆盖范围外,该公司还扩大了不同场景下内容保护产品的范围和数量。Vobile还向现有客户交叉销售其多样化的增值服务产品,通过新的内容分发渠道为他们提供新的获利机会。
增长动力 #3: 抓住国内市场的知识产权保护趋势。由全球领先电影制片厂创作的外国电影和内容在中国享有很高的知名度。它为Vobile利用其无与伦比的保护能力来促进中国的内容交易留出了充足的空间。这种商业模式在中国仍处于初期阶段,但增长和趋势是稳健的。我们预计,该公司将通过以下方式实现强劲增长:(1)协助内容提供商和所有者在下游分销商或抖音、快手(1024 HK)、Bilibili(BILI US)等新兴视频频道上管理内容并从中获利;(2)协助国内原创内容走向海外,包括在YouTube和Facebook等海外平台上发布时获得广告和其他收入分成。
竞争优势 #1: 领先的市场地位,强大的客户群。作为领先的数字内容保护商,Vobile的客户包括178家全球电影制片厂(例如派拉蒙、华纳兄弟、环球影业)电视网络(例如HBO、BBC、NBC)以及美国和亚洲的内容所有者(例如迪士尼(DIS US)、Netflix(美国NFLX)、YouTube、爱奇艺(IQ US)、字节跳动)。与领先内容合作伙伴的良好关系使其能够覆盖广泛的视频内容,并在知识产权保护网络上建立强大的生态系统。
竞争优势 #2: 久经考验的技术能力记录。该公司拥有业界领先的知识产权跟踪能力,包括专有的VDNA(指纹)和水印技术。该公司的核心VDNA技术旨在检测经过侵权者操纵的视频内容匹配,使该平台能够准确、高效地发现音频、视频和图像内容。在17年的业务运营中,该公司积累了超过1000万的VDNA资产,这是知识产权持有者授权的最大的视频DNA数据库。VDNA的有效性体现在全球市场领先地位和95%的高客户保留率上。
竞争优势 #3: 通过收购扩大业务。该公司于2022年收购了Particle culture Technologies,以进一步加强其在内容产品供应方面的领导地位并扩大其在中国的地理覆盖范围。粒子文化涵盖了中国的多个视频平台,并为在线视频平台(例如腾讯视频、Bilibili)上的视频内容提供产品解决方案,以整合到中国的广播和电视网络中。在此过程中,Vobile进行了几项重大收购,即Blayze(2014年)、Rentrak(2015年)、IP [1] Echelon(2018年)、ZEFR的RightSid和ChannelID部门(2019年)。这些收购使公司能够扩大业务规模并扩大客户覆盖范围。
财务和估值。2018年1月,Vobile在香港交易所的首次公开募股(IPO)中筹集了7,470万港元。2022年上半年,收入为5.56亿港元,同比增长74%,调整后净利润增长39%至5000万港元,调整后净利润率为9%。除此之外,Vobile的现金和现金等价物为4.38亿港元,并在22年上半年录得1300万港元的净运营现金流入。我们预计,Vobile将在未来三年内保持40%的收入增长。如果我们假设23财年的收入增长40%,那么Vobile的交易价格为23财年每股收益的5倍左右。由于增长前景更强劲,该估值相对于业界同行(例如微盟(2013 HK)和金蝶(268 HK))的约7倍,具有吸引力。关键风险。(1)未能留住现有的主要客户(2)向新市场扩张带来的盈利压力