Government Shutdown Could Last 2-3 Weeks With 90% Certainty: Goldman Sachs
Government Shutdown Could Last 2-3 Weeks With 90% Certainty: Goldman Sachs
Lawmakers are running out of time to prevent another partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, predicts a shutdown lasting two to three weeks starting Oct. 1.
议员们没有时间阻止美国政府再次部分关闭。高盛首席经济学家 扬·哈齐乌斯，预计从10月1日起，停工将持续两到三周。
A government shutdown this year has looked likely for several months, and we now think the odds have risen to 90%," said Hatzius.
今年的政府关闭似乎可能持续几个月，我们现在认为几率已经上升到90％，” 哈齐乌斯说。
Hatzius stated in a Wednesday note that despite the possibility of a last-minute deal, there hasn't been significant progress nor ample time remaining, Fortune reported,
据《财富》杂志报道，Hatzius在周三的报告中表示，尽管有可能在最后一刻达成协议，但没有取得重大进展，也没有足够的剩余时间，
He believes that the shutdown could last several weeks due to the build-up of political pressure from delayed military pay dates and a decline in essential operations. A Nomura economics team supports Hatzius's view, also suggesting a potential longer shutdown.
他认为，由于军人发薪日期延迟和基本行动减少带来的政治压力越来越大，停工可能会持续数周。野村证券的一个经济团队支持Hatzius的观点，并暗示停工时间可能会更长。
Lawmakers' only option to prevent a shutdown is passing a short-term funding extension, a "continuing resolution" or CR. However, Hatzius warns that the current CRs being pushed by the Senate and House include controversial provisions making their passage unlikely.
议员们防止停摆的唯一选择是通过短期资金延期、“持续决议” 或CR。但是，哈齐乌斯警告说，参议院和众议院目前正在推动的CR包括有争议的条款，因此不太可能获得通过。
A partial government shutdown could affect the salaries of up to four million federal workers and cut various services. However, mandatory spending programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are expected to remain unaffected.
政府部分关闭可能会影响多达400万联邦工作人员的工资，并削减各种服务。但是，医疗保险、医疗补助和社会保障等强制性支出计划预计不会受到影响。