An Intrinsic Calculation For Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603915) Suggests It's 35% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603915) Suggests It's 35% Undervalued
Key Insights
主要见解
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Jiangsu Guomao Reducer fair value estimate is CN¥26.20
- Jiangsu Guomao Reducer's CN¥16.91 share price signals that it might be 35% undervalued
- The CN¥21.00 analyst price target for 603915 is 20% less than our estimate of fair value
- 采用两阶段自由现金流量转股权,江苏国贸减持公允价值估计为26.20元
- 江苏国贸减速器16.91元股价暗示可能被低估35%
- 分析师对603915 CN的目标价为21元,比我们预估的公允价值低20%.
How far off is Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603915) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
江苏国茂减速机股份有限公司(上证号:603915)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过预测未来的现金流,然后将其贴现到今天的价值,来看看股票的定价是否公平。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
View our latest analysis for Jiangsu Guomao Reducer
查看我们对江苏国贸减速机的最新分析
What's The Estimated Valuation?
估计的估价是多少?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥432.0m | CN¥668.0m | CN¥829.1m | CN¥976.6m | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.22b | CN¥1.32b | CN¥1.41b | CN¥1.48b | CN¥1.55b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 24.12% | Est @ 17.79% | Est @ 13.36% | Est @ 10.26% | Est @ 8.09% | Est @ 6.57% | Est @ 5.51% | Est @ 4.77% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% | CN¥396 | CN¥561 | CN¥638 | CN¥688 | CN¥715 | CN¥722 | CN¥715 | CN¥698 | CN¥675 | CN¥648 |
二零二四年 | 2025年 | 二零二六年 | 2027年 | 2028年 | 2029年 | 二0三0 | 2031年 | 2032年 | 2033年 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元4.32.0亿元 | CN元6.680亿元 | 净额8.291亿元 | 净额9.766亿元 | CN元11.1亿元 | CN元12.2亿元 | 人民币13.2亿元 | 净额14.1亿元 | 净额14.8亿元 | CN人民币15.5亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@24.12% | Est@17.79% | Est@13.36% | Est@10.26% | Est@8.09% | Est@6.57% | Est@5.51% | Est@4.77% |
现值(CN元,百万元)贴现9.2% | CN元396元 | CN元561元 | CN元638元 | CN元688元 | CN元715元 | CN元722元 | CN元715元 | CN元698元 | CN元675元 | CN元648元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.5b
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币65亿元
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.0%的5年平均水平。我们以9.2%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.6b× (1 + 3.0%) ÷ (9.2%– 3.0%) = CN¥26b
终端值(TV)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.6b×(1+3.0%)?(9.2%-3.0%)=CN元26b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥26b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= CN¥11b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=260亿元?(1+9.2%)10=110亿元
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥17b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥16.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流是170亿新元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与当前16.9元的股价相比,该公司的估值似乎被大大低估了,较目前的股价有35%的折扣。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
The Assumptions
假设
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangsu Guomao Reducer as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.009. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将江苏国贸减产视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了9.2%,这是基于杠杆率为1.009的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
SWOT Analysis for Jiangsu Guomao Reducer
江苏国贸减速器的SWOT分析
- Currently debt free.
- 目前没有债务。
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- 股息由收益和现金流支付。
- Dividend information for 603915.
- 603915年度股息信息。
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
- 与机械市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Chinese market.
- 预计年收入增长速度将快于中国市场。
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
- 预计该公司的年度收益增速将低于中国市场。
- What else are analysts forecasting for 603915?
- 分析师们对603915的预测还包括什么?
Looking Ahead:
展望未来:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Jiangsu Guomao Reducer, we've put together three relevant aspects you should explore:
虽然重要的是,在研究一家公司时,DCF计算不应该是唯一的衡量标准。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于江苏国贸减速机,我们总结了三个相关方面,你应该探索一下:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Jiangsu Guomao Reducer that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 603915's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 风险例如,我们发现1江苏国贸减速机警示标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 未来收益:603915‘S的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。