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As Biden Prepares For His State Of The Union Address On Tuesday, How Have Markets Historically Reacted?
As Biden Prepares For His State Of The Union Address On Tuesday, How Have Markets Historically Reacted?
President Joe Biden is set to deliver his State Of The Union Address on Tuesday at 9 p.m., facing a gridlocked Congress that has a fragmented GOP and a Democratic Party with limited wiggle room.
A Debt Ceiling Deal, Hot On Biden's To-Do List
The president is expected to spend a significant portion of his speech on an issue that's become hot around Washington these days: the struggle between Democrats and Republicans to agree on a new debt ceiling.
The debt limit is the total amount of money that the government is allowed to borrow to meet its obligations, all the way from making social security payments to military salaries, interest on the national debt and tax refunds.
According to the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the current debt ceiling of $31.381 trillion ran out on Jan. 19 and the Treasury Department can only avoid default until June by using a set of tools called "extraordinary measures," according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Failing to agree on a new debt ceiling and defaulting on its obligations would likely lead the U.S. economy into a disastrous recession, carrying the rest of the world along into a global financial crisis. This universal necessity to agree on a new limit has often been used by both parties as a leverage for negotiating their own goals.
The parties are now at a standstill, with the GOP claiming concessions like reduced spending and President Biden stating that he won't negotiate any spending cuts into a new debt ceiling deal.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Biden met with this topic in mind but have so far failed to reach a consensus.
How Do Markets Normally React To The Speech?
Last week, a Bloomberg report pointed out the S&P 500 had gained almost the same percentage points between Biden's election and his second State Of The Union Address than in the same period of Trump's presidency, even in spite of the bear market of 2022.
So far, the markets have responded positively to Biden's past State Of The Union addresses.
Following his 2022 speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.79% and the S&P 500 jumped 1.86%. After his inaugural 2021 State Of The Union, the Dow jumped 0.70% while the S&P 500 raised 0.67%.
The Dow performed positively three out of four times after Trump addressed Congress in his own State Of The Union speeches. The index jumped 1.68% in 2020, dropped 0.08% in 2019, and jumped 0.28% and 1.46% in 2018 and 2017, respectively.
Yet looking at historical data published by Market Watch, between 1961 and 2020 the daily performance of the Dow Jones Average on the day after the State Of The Union speech was varied and did not throw out any significant pattern that can be used to predict future behavior.
Post-speech performance of the Dow averaged a meager increase of 0.03% for the past 60 years.
President Joe Biden is set to deliver his State Of The Union Address on Tuesday at 9 p.m., facing a gridlocked Congress that has a fragmented GOP and a Democratic Party with limited wiggle room.
乔·拜登总统定于周二晚上9点发表国情咨文,国会陷入僵局,共和党四分五裂,民主党的回旋余地有限。
A Debt Ceiling Deal, Hot On Biden's To-Do List
一项债务上限协议,在拜登的待办事项清单上很热门
The president is expected to spend a significant portion of his speech on an issue that's become hot around Washington these days: the struggle between Democrats and Republicans to agree on a new debt ceiling.
预计总统将在演讲的很大一部分时间上谈论一个当今华盛顿变得炙手可热的问题:民主党人和共和党人为就新的债务上限达成协议而进行的斗争。
The debt limit is the total amount of money that the government is allowed to borrow to meet its obligations, all the way from making social security payments to military salaries, interest on the national debt and tax refunds.
债务限额是允许政府为履行其义务而借入的总金额,包括支付社会保障金、国民债务利息和退税。
According to the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the current debt ceiling of $31.381 trillion ran out on Jan. 19 and the Treasury Department can only avoid default until June by using a set of tools called "extraordinary measures," according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示,根据无党派的负责任联邦预算委员会的说法,目前31.381万亿美元的债务上限在1月19日用完,财政部只能通过使用一套名为 “特别措施” 的工具来避免违约。
Failing to agree on a new debt ceiling and defaulting on its obligations would likely lead the U.S. economy into a disastrous recession, carrying the rest of the world along into a global financial crisis. This universal necessity to agree on a new limit has often been used by both parties as a leverage for negotiating their own goals.
未能就新的债务上限达成一致并拖欠债务可能会导致美国经济陷入灾难性衰退,使世界其他地区陷入全球金融危机。商定新限额的普遍必要性经常被双方用作谈判自己目标的杠杆。
The parties are now at a standstill, with the GOP claiming concessions like reduced spending and President Biden stating that he won't negotiate any spending cuts into a new debt ceiling deal.
各党派现在处于停滞状态,共和党声称做出让步,例如减少支出,拜登总统表示他不会就新的债务上限协议进行任何支出削减谈判。
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Biden met with this topic in mind but have so far failed to reach a consensus.
众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和拜登考虑了这个话题,但迄今为止未能达成共识。
How Do Markets Normally React To The Speech?
市场通常会如何对演讲做出反应?
Last week, a Bloomberg report pointed out the S&P 500 had gained almost the same percentage points between Biden's election and his second State Of The Union Address than in the same period of Trump's presidency, even in spite of the bear market of 2022.
上周,彭博社的一份报告指出,尽管2022年出现熊市,但标准普尔500指数在拜登当选和他的第二次国情咨文演说之间上涨的百分点几乎与特朗普总统任期同期相同。
So far, the markets have responded positively to Biden's past State Of The Union addresses.
到目前为止,市场对拜登过去的国情咨文做出了积极回应。
Following his 2022 speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.79% and the S&P 500 jumped 1.86%. After his inaugural 2021 State Of The Union, the Dow jumped 0.70% while the S&P 500 raised 0.67%.
在他2022年的演讲之后,道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了1.79%,标准普尔500指数上涨了1.86%。在他首次发表2021年国情咨文后,道琼斯指数上涨了0.70%,而标准普尔500指数上涨了0.67%。
The Dow performed positively three out of four times after Trump addressed Congress in his own State Of The Union speeches. The index jumped 1.68% in 2020, dropped 0.08% in 2019, and jumped 0.28% and 1.46% in 2018 and 2017, respectively.
特朗普在自己的国情咨文演讲中向国会发表讲话后,道琼斯指数四分之三表现良好。该指数在2020年上涨了1.68%,在2019年下跌了0.08%,在2018年和2017年分别上涨了0.28%和1.46%。
Yet looking at historical data published by Market Watch, between 1961 and 2020 the daily performance of the Dow Jones Average on the day after the State Of The Union speech was varied and did not throw out any significant pattern that can be used to predict future behavior.
然而,从Market Watch发布的历史数据来看,在1961年至2020年之间,道琼斯平均指数在国情咨文演讲后第二天的每日表现各不相同,没有提出任何可用于预测未来行为的显著模式。
Post-speech performance of the Dow averaged a meager increase of 0.03% for the past 60 years.
在过去的60年中,道琼斯指数的演讲后表现平均微不足道地增长了0.03%。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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