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Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Pulls Back 5.7% This Week, but Still Delivers Shareholders Splendid 53% CAGR Over 3 Years
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Pulls Back 5.7% This Week, but Still Delivers Shareholders Splendid 53% CAGR Over 3 Years
It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) share price is 252% higher than it was three years ago. Most would be happy with that. It's also good to see the share price up 21% over the last quarter. This could be related to the recent financial results, released recently - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
While the stock has fallen 5.7% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for Alcoa
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During three years of share price growth, Alcoa moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NYSE:AA Earnings Per Share Growth January 24th 2023
It is of course excellent to see how Alcoa has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Alcoa stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Alcoa, it has a TSR of 255% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 8.1% in the twelve months, Alcoa shareholders did even worse, losing 15% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.1% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. If you would like to research Alcoa in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
这可能看起来很糟糕,但是当你买入一只股票(没有杠杆作用)时可能发生的最糟糕的情况是它的股价变为零。但相比之下,你可以赚很多钱 更多 如果公司表现不错,则不超过 100%。例如 美铝公司(NYSE:AA)的股价比三年前高出252%。大多数人会对此感到满意。也很高兴看到股价比上个季度上涨了21%。这可能与最近发布的最新财务业绩有关——您可以通过阅读我们的公司报告来了解最新数据。
尽管该股本周下跌了5.7%,但值得关注长期来看,看看该股的历史回报是否是由基础基本面推动的。
查看我们对美铝的最新分析
引用巴菲特的话说:“船只将在世界各地航行,但Flat Earth Society将蓬勃发展。市场上的价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大差异...”通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
在三年的股价增长中,美铝从亏损转为盈利。正如我们在这里看到的那样,这种过渡可能是一个转折点,证明股价强劲上涨是合理的。
该公司的每股收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看确切数字)。
NYSE:AA每股收益增长 2023 年 1 月 24 日
当然,很高兴看到美铝多年来如何增加利润,但未来对股东来说更为重要。如果你想买入或卖出美铝股票,你应该看看这个 免费 资产负债表的详细报告。
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报以及股价回报率。股价回报仅反映股价的变化,而股东总回报率包括股息的价值(假设股息是再投资的)以及任何折扣融资或分拆的收益。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,股东总回报率通常远高于股价回报率。就美铝而言,其过去3年的股东总回报率为255%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
不同的视角
尽管整个市场在十二个月内下跌了约8.1%,但美铝股东的表现甚至更糟,损失了15%(甚至包括股息)。话虽如此,在下跌的市场中,一些股票不可避免地会被超卖。关键是要密切关注基本面的事态发展。不幸的是,去年的表现可能表明存在未解决的挑战,因为这比过去五年0.1%的年化亏损还要糟糕。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该 “在街上有血迹时买入”,但我们提醒投资者,首先应确保他们购买的是高质量的企业。如果你想更详细地研究美铝公司,那么你可能需要看看内部人士是在买入还是卖出该公司的股票。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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