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JPMorgan Strategists Now See Lower Odds of Recession, But Economists Disagree
JPMorgan Strategists Now See Lower Odds of Recession, But Economists Disagree
As the markets launch into 2023 with an upward moment, a new analysis from Wall Street firm JPMorgan offers a bullish outlook for the year, concluding that a soft landing could be the most likely outcome.
What Happened: Seven of nine asset classes ranging from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession, JPMorgan's trading model shows, according to Bloomberg.
This marks a significant improvement from October 2022, when the firm said a recession was almost a done deal.
That said, global money managers were of the view the economy is not out of the woods yet, the report said, adding that the S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing. On a positive note, the recession odds baked in by the stock market have improved from 98% in 2022.
The asset classes that have now discounted a less than 50% chance of a recession are:
U.S. high-grade credit
U.S. high-yield credit
Five-year treasuries
European stock market index
European Union high-grade credit
European Union high-yield credit
Five-year European Union government bonds
Apart from the S&P 500, only base metals are reflecting recession odds over 50%.
Most asset classes have been steadily pricing out recession risks helped by China reopening, the collapse of gas prices in Europe and larger than expected inflation downshifting in the US," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reportedly said.
Opinions Diverge: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said investors are underpricing the potential pressure on stocks stemming from the growth slowdown in the months ahead, Bloomberg said.
The consensus forecast of economists has put the odds of a recession at 65%, up from 50% in October, the report added. It also said the Treasury yield inversion continues to flash a recession warning, noting that the yield on the three-month bills is more than that of the 10-year Treasury note.
The recent bounce in the market reflects investor expectations that the central banks will be able to bring about a soft landing, the report added.
As the markets launch into 2023 with an upward moment, a new analysis from Wall Street firm JPMorgan offers a bullish outlook for the year, concluding that a soft landing could be the most likely outcome.
随着市场进入2023年的上升时刻,华尔街公司摩根大通的一项新分析为今年提供了看涨的前景,得出的结论是,软着陆可能是最有可能的结果。
What Happened: Seven of nine asset classes ranging from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession, JPMorgan's trading model shows, according to Bloomberg.
发生了什么: 据彭博社报道,摩根大通的交易模型显示,从高品位债券到欧洲股票的九种资产类别中,有七种现在显示衰退的可能性不到50%。
This marks a significant improvement from October 2022, when the firm said a recession was almost a done deal.
这标志着与2022年10月相比有了重大改善,当时该公司表示经济衰退几乎已经完成。
That said, global money managers were of the view the economy is not out of the woods yet, the report said, adding that the S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing. On a positive note, the recession odds baked in by the stock market have improved from 98% in 2022.
报告称,尽管如此,全球基金经理认为经济尚未走出困境,并补充说,标准普尔500指数仍认为衰退出现的可能性为73%。积极的一面是,股市带来的衰退几率已从2022年的98%有所提高。
The asset classes that have now discounted a less than 50% chance of a recession are:
现在将衰退概率低于 50% 的资产类别是:
U.S. high-grade credit
U.S. high-yield credit
Five-year treasuries
European stock market index
European Union high-grade credit
European Union high-yield credit
Five-year European Union government bonds
美国高等级信贷
美国高收益信贷
五年期国债
欧洲股市指数
欧盟高等级信贷
欧盟高收益信贷
五年期欧盟政府债券
Apart from the S&P 500, only base metals are reflecting recession odds over 50%.
除标准普尔500指数外,只有基本金属反映了超过50%的衰退几率。
Most asset classes have been steadily pricing out recession risks helped by China reopening, the collapse of gas prices in Europe and larger than expected inflation downshifting in the US," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reportedly said.
摩根大通策略师摩根大通策略师在中国重新开放、欧洲天然气价格暴跌以及美国通胀降幅大于预期的推动下,大多数资产类别一直在稳步排除衰退风险。” Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 据说说。
Opinions Diverge: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said investors are underpricing the potential pressure on stocks stemming from the growth slowdown in the months ahead, Bloomberg said.
意见分歧: 摩根大通的马尔科·科拉诺维奇, 同时,彭博社表示,投资者低估了未来几个月增长放缓给股票带来的潜在压力。
The consensus forecast of economists has put the odds of a recession at 65%, up from 50% in October, the report added. It also said the Treasury yield inversion continues to flash a recession warning, noting that the yield on the three-month bills is more than that of the 10-year Treasury note.
报告补充说,经济学家的共识预测显示,经济衰退的几率为65%,高于10月份的50%。它还表示,美国国债收益率反转继续发出衰退警告,并指出三个月期国债的收益率高于10年期国债的收益率。
The recent bounce in the market reflects investor expectations that the central banks will be able to bring about a soft landing, the report added.
报告补充说,最近的市场反弹反映了投资者对中央银行将能够实现软着陆的预期。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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