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Those Who Invested in Greif (NYSE:GEF) Three Years Ago Are up 64%
Those Who Invested in Greif (NYSE:GEF) Three Years Ago Are up 64%
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Greif, Inc. (NYSE:GEF) shareholders have seen the share price rise 47% over three years, well in excess of the market return (17%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 15% , including dividends .
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
View our latest analysis for Greif
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Greif was able to grow its EPS at 31% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 14% average annual increase in the share price. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.58.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Greif the TSR over the last 3 years was 64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Greif shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Greif has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
We will like Greif better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
通过购买指数基金,你可以轻松地大致匹配市场回报。但如果你以有吸引力的价格收购好企业,你的投资组合回报可能会超过平均市场回报。例如,Greif,Inc.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:GEF)股东的股价在三年内上涨了47%,远远超过了市场回报率(17%,不包括股息)。另一方面,最近的回报并不是很好,包括股息在内,股东仅上涨了15%。
让我们来看看较长期的基本基本面,看看它们是否与股东回报一致。
查看我们对Greif的最新分析
虽然有效市场假说继续被一些人传授,但事实证明,市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
Greif能够在三年内以每年31%的速度增长每股收益,推动股价走高。这一每股收益增幅高于该公司股价14%的年均增幅。因此,人们可以合理地得出结论,市场对该股的态度已经降温。这种谨慎的情绪反映在(相当低的)市盈率8.58。
您可以在下图中看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(单击图表可查看精确值)。
我们很高兴地报告,这位首席执行官的薪酬比类似资本公司的大多数首席执行官都要低。但是,尽管CEO的薪酬总是值得检查的,但真正重要的问题是,公司能否在未来实现收益增长。在买卖股票之前,我们总是建议仔细检查一下历史增长趋势,可在此处找到。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。我们注意到Greif在过去3年的TSR为64%,这比上面提到的股价回报要好。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
很高兴看到Greif股东在过去一年中获得了15%的总股东回报。这还包括股息。由于一年期的TSR好于五年期的TSR(后者的年收益率为7%),看起来该股的表现在最近有所改善。在最好的情况下,这可能暗示着一些真正的商业势头,意味着现在可能是深入研究的好时机。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,承担风险-格雷夫已经3个警示标志(这让我们有点不舒服)我们认为你应该知道这一点。
如果我们看到一些大的内部收购,我们会更喜欢Greif。在我们等待的时候,看看这个免费最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗?保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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