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Tesla Analyst Slashes Price Target By Over 12% To Reflect Macro Headwinds

Tesla Analyst Slashes Price Target By Over 12% To Reflect Macro Headwinds

特斯拉分析师将目标股价下调12％以上以反映宏观不利因素
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2023/01/05 13:57
  • Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $285 to $250.
  • TSLA reported December quarter deliveries of 405.3k vehicles (below consensus 418.0k) though mostly expected with the week-long Shanghai shutdown.
  • For the full-year 2022, total deliveries were 1.31M units, up 40% Y/Y, while overall production was up ~47% Y/Y, in line with previous TSLA commentary.
  • TSLA noted an increase in cars in transport exiting the December quarter.
  • However, Rakesh believes concerns remain around a weakening consumer driven by rising interest rates and broader macro concerns, which could continue to be a 1H23E headwind.
  • The analyst also noted a critical one-week shutdown at the Shanghai factory (45%+ of TSLA annual capacity)
  • Rakesh believes the December quarter top line could see challenges, with price cuts in both China (~9-10%) starting in October and the U.S., with ~$7,500 discounts on the Model 3/Y in the month of December.
  • However, introducing the Inflation Reduction Act with certain Model 3/Y's now qualifying for the $7,500 credit could create a significant tailwind, the analyst noted.
  • In addition, TSLA is beginning to ramp the Semi, with deliveries starting in December, though Rakesh believes volumes are currently low, while the Cybertruck is likely for a mid-2023 production start.
  • Competition in China, the world's largest BEV market, is increasing as BYD Co, Ltd (OTC: BYDDY) and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (OTC: GELYF) ramp up new EVs at an attractive price point.
  • In the U.S., new EV models like the Silverado EV and the continued popularity of the Ioniq 5 EV could also add to competition concerns.
  • Overall, 2022 EVs were up 65% Y/Y (vs. broader LVP, up ~6% Y/Y).
  • Price Action: TSLA shares traded lower by 2.71% at $110.56 on the last check Thursday.
  • 瑞穗分析师维杰·拉克什维持特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的买入评级，但将目标股价从285美元下调至250美元。
  • TSLA报告称，12月该季度的汽车交付量为40.53万辆（低于共识的41.8万辆），尽管主要是由于为期一周的上海停产而预期。
  • 2022年全年，总交付量为131万辆，同比增长40％，而总产量同比增长约47％，与TSLA之前的评论一致。
  • TSLA指出，12月季度退出的运输车辆有所增加。
  • 但是，拉克什认为，在利率上升和更广泛的宏观担忧的推动下，消费者疲软仍然令人担忧，这可能继续是 1H23E 的不利因素。
  • 该分析师还指出，上海工厂严重停产一周（占TSLA年产能的45％以上）
  • 拉克什认为，12月季度的收入可能会面临挑战，中国的降价（约9-10％）从10月开始，美国的降价幅度在12月，Model 3/Y的折扣约为7,500美元。
  • 但是，这位分析师指出，在某些Model 3/Y现在有资格获得7,500美元信贷的情况下引入通货膨胀降低法案可能会带来重大利好影响。
  • 此外，TSLA已开始扩大Semi的规模，将于12月开始交付，尽管拉克什认为目前的销量很低，而Cybertruck可能会在2023年中期开始生产。
  • 随着比亚迪有限公司（场外交易代码：BYDDY）和吉利汽车控股有限公司（场外交易代码：GELYF）以具有吸引力的价格推出新的电动汽车，全球最大的电动汽车市场中国的竞争正在加剧。
  • 在美国，像Silverado EV这样的新型电动汽车以及Ioniq 5 EV的持续普及也可能加剧竞争问题。
  • 总体而言，2022年电动汽车同比增长65％（相比之下，整体LVP同比增长约6％）。
  • 价格走势：周四，TSLA股价下跌2.71％，至110.56美元。
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