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Are Investors Undervaluing Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) By 32%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) By 32%?
Does the December share price for Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Autohome
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.32b | CN¥2.54b | CN¥2.70b | CN¥2.84b | CN¥2.96b | CN¥3.06b | CN¥3.16b | CN¥3.24b | CN¥3.32b | CN¥3.40b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Est @ 6.42% | Est @ 5.09% | Est @ 4.15% | Est @ 3.50% | Est @ 3.05% | Est @ 2.73% | Est @ 2.50% | Est @ 2.35% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6% | CN¥2.1k | CN¥2.2k | CN¥2.1k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥19b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.4b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.0%) = CN¥52b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥52b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= CN¥23b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥42b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$32.4, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NYSE:ATHM Discounted Cash Flow December 22nd 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Autohome as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.026. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Autohome
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for ATHM.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Interactive Media and Services market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for ATHM?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Autohome, there are three further aspects you should further research:
- Risks: Be aware that Autohome is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Future Earnings: How does ATHM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
汽车之家(纽约证券交易所股票代码:ATHM)12月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过获取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。在这种情况下,我们将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对汽车之家的最新分析
模型
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元23.2亿元 | CN元25.4亿元 | CN人民币27.亿元 | 净额28.4亿元 | 净额29.6亿元 | CN元30.6亿元 | CN元31.6亿元 | CN元32.4亿元 | 净额33.2亿元 | CN元34亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师X5 | 分析师x4 | Est@6.42% | Est@5.09% | Est@4.15% | Est@3.50% | Est@3.05% | Est@2.73% | Est@2.50% | Est@2.35% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现8.6% | CN元2.1K | CN元2.2K元 | CN元2.1K | CN元2.0K | CN元2.0K | CN元1.9万元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.7K | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元19亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我们以8.6%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.4b×(1+2.0%)?(8.6%-2.0%)=CN元52b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元520b?(1+8.6%)10=CN元230亿元
那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流是42b元人民币。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前32.4美元的股价,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,较目前的股价有32%的折让。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
纽约证券交易所:ATHM贴现现金流2022年12月22日假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将汽车之家视为潜在股东,我们使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.6%,这是基于杠杆率为1.026的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
汽车之家的SWOT分析
- 目前没有债务。
- ATHM的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- 与互动媒体和服务市场上前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- 预计未来三年的年收入将会增长。
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- 据预测,该公司的年收入增速将低于美国市场。
- 分析师还对ATHM做出了什么预测?
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论文而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。我们能弄清楚为什么该公司的股价低于内在价值吗?对于汽车之家,还有三个方面需要进一步研究:
- 风险:请注意,汽车之家正在播放在我们的投资分析中出现1个警告信号,你应该知道关于……
- 未来收益:ATHM的增长率与其同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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