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Are Investors Undervaluing Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR) By 49%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR) By 49%?
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Vicor
The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$46.2m | US$66.3m | US$140.7m | US$196.6m | US$252.5m | US$304.2m | US$349.6m | US$388.3m | US$420.6m | US$447.6m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 39.74% | Est @ 28.42% | Est @ 20.48% | Est @ 14.93% | Est @ 11.05% | Est @ 8.33% | Est @ 6.42% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3% | US$42.6 | US$56.5 | US$111 | US$143 | US$169 | US$188 | US$200 | US$205 | US$205 | US$201 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.5b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$448m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.0%) = US$7.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$7.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= US$3.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$4.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$54.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqGS:VICR Discounted Cash Flow December 22nd 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Vicor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.140. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Vicor
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for VICR.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- What else are analysts forecasting for VICR?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Vicor, we've put together three essential aspects you should assess:
- Risks: Be aware that Vicor is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
- Future Earnings: How does VICR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我们将通过将预期的未来现金流折现到今天的价值来估计维柯公司(纳斯达克:VIR)的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对Vicor的最新分析
计算
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 4620万美元 | 6630万美元 | 1.407亿美元 | 1.966亿美元 | 2.525亿美元 | 3.042亿美元 | 3.496亿美元 | 3.883亿美元 | 4.206亿美元 | 4.476亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@39.74% | Est@28.42% | Est@20.48% | EST@14.93% | Est@11.05% | Est@8.33% | Est@6.42% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@8.3% | 42.6美元 | 56.5美元 | 111美元 | 143美元 | 169美元 | 188美元 | 200美元 | 205美元 | 205美元 | 201美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=15亿美元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我们以8.3%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=4.48亿美元×(1+2.0%)?(8.3%-2.0%)=72亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=72亿美元?(1+8.3%)10=32亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为48亿美元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。与目前54.8美元的股价相比,该公司的估值似乎相当低,较目前的股价有49%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
NasdaqGS:VICR贴现现金流2022年12月22日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将维多视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.3%,这是基于杠杆率为1.140的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
维多的SWOT分析
- 目前没有债务。
- 副总裁的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- 预计该公司的年收入增长速度将快于美国市场。
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- 预计收入每年的增长速度将低于20%。
- 分析师们还对VICR做了哪些预测?
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论文而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于Vicor,我们总结了你应该评估的三个基本方面:
- 风险:请注意,维克多正在展示我们的投资分析中的2个警告信号,其中一条意义重大……
- 未来收益:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,VICR的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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