Fire & Flower Holdings: Analyst Reduces Price Target To $1.65 And Remains Neutral
Fire & Flower Holdings: Analyst Reduces Price Target To $1.65 And Remains Neutral
Fire & Flower Holdings Corp. (OTCQX:FFLWF) (NYSE:FAF) (TSX:FAF) released its financial and operational results for fiscal 2022 third quarter ended October 29, 2022, revealing revenue of CA$43.8 million ($32.2 million) for Q3 2022, representing an increase of 8% from CA$40.7 million in the previous quarter and a decrease of 3% from CA$45.4 million in the prior year comparative period.
火花控股公司。(OTCQX：FFLWF)(纽约证券交易所：FAF)(多伦多证券交易所：FAF)放行截至2022年10月29日的2022财年第三季度财务和运营业绩显示，2022年第三季度收入为4380万加元(3220万美元)，比上一季度的4070万加元增长8%，比上一年同期的4540万加元下降3%。
The Analyst
《分析师》
According to Cantor Fitzgerald's Pablo Zuanic: "We stay Neutral and lower our 12-month price target to C$1.65 from C$1.95 due to reduced estimates. Moreover, "We attach our updated model following the release of the Oct qtr print and adjust our model for the shift in the fiscal year to Dec from Jan."
根据Cantor Fitzgerald的巴勃罗·祖阿尼克的说法：“我们保持中性，由于预期下调，我们将12个月目标价从1.95加元下调至1.65加元。此外，我们附上了10月季度报告发布后的更新模型，并针对从1月到12月的财年变化调整了我们的模型。”
The Thesis
这篇论文是
In Zuanic's view, as company retail sales increased 9% sequentially in the October quarter "in a market we estimate grew 5%; retail segment gross margins increased 100bp seq to 24.3%, and EBITDA trends improved (-$2.8Mn vs. -6Mn)." The company's performance is encouraged considering a tough retail climate, according to the analyst.
根据Zuanic的观点，随着公司零售额在10月份的季度环比增长9%，“在我们估计增长5%的市场中，零售部门的毛利率增长了100个基点，达到24.3%，EBITDA趋势有所改善(-280万美元对-600万美元)。”据这位分析师说，考虑到严峻的零售环境，该公司的业绩受到了鼓舞。
Moreover, management describes the pricing strategy as "high-low" with more surgical discounting for members in the loyalty program, rather than "blanket discounting."
此外，管理层将定价策略描述为“高-低”，为忠诚度计划中的会员提供更多外科手术折扣，而不是“全面折扣”。
In addition, the guidance calls for positive EBITDA "by 1H23 and positive FCF by 2H23; it expects to capture market growth both via M&A and organically," said the analyst.
此外，这位分析师表示，该指引呼吁在上半年前实现正EBITDA，在2H23年前实现正FCF；预计将通过并购和有机方式实现市场增长。
Keeping "A Constructive Stance"
坚持“建设性立场”
Zuanic noted that the company's new stores in Canada may include standard shops as well as those collocated at Circle-K outlets, "estimating the net economics for FAF representing $75-100K per store."
祖尼克指出，该公司在加拿大的新门店可能包括标准门店和Circle-K奥特莱斯的门店，“估计Faf的净经济价值为每家门店75-10万美元。”
Although "we rate the stock Neutral, we keep a constructive stance because of the ACT angle and because of what we think is a more tailored approach to pricing," he added.
他补充称，尽管“我们对股票的评级为中性，但我们保持建设性的立场是因为ACT的角度，以及我们认为更有针对性的定价方法。”
Valuation and price target (all in C$): The company shares "are down 44% in the last 3 months vs. a 19% drop in the YOLO ETF," Zuanic said.
估值和目标价(全部以加元为单位)：祖阿尼克表示，该公司的股价在过去3个月里下跌了44%，而YOLO ETF的跌幅为19%。
"We continue to take 0.7x on our CY24 sales estimates, which yields a price target of $1.65 by Dec'23. Given sector volatility, we look for a>50% upside to rate stocks Overweight," the analyst concluded.
这位分析师的结论是，我们对2014财年销售预期的估值继续为0.7倍，到12月23日的目标股价为1.65美元。考虑到行业的波动性，我们预计涨幅>50%，以对股票进行增持评级。
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Photo: Courtesy Of Pietro Jeng On Unsplash
图片：Unspash上由Pietro Jeng提供