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Are A10 Networks, Inc. (NYSE:ATEN) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Are A10 Networks, Inc. (NYSE:ATEN) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of A10 Networks, Inc. (NYSE:ATEN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for A10 Networks
Is A10 Networks Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$71.3m | US$64.2m | US$60.3m | US$58.1m | US$57.0m | US$56.5m | US$56.5m | US$56.9m | US$57.5m | US$58.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -6.09% | Est @ -3.67% | Est @ -1.98% | Est @ -0.79% | Est @ 0.04% | Est @ 0.62% | Est @ 1.03% | Est @ 1.32% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5% | US$66.3 | US$55.6 | US$48.5 | US$43.5 | US$39.6 | US$36.6 | US$34.0 | US$31.9 | US$29.9 | US$28.2 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$414m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$58m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.0%) = US$1.1b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)10= US$519m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$933m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$16.6, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:ATEN Discounted Cash Flow December 18th 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at A10 Networks as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.995. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for A10 Networks
- Currently debt free.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for ATEN.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for ATEN?
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For A10 Networks, we've compiled three additional aspects you should further research:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for A10 Networks that you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does ATEN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种评估A10网络公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ATEN)内在价值的方法,即将预期的未来现金流折现为今天的价值。为此,我们将利用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对A10网络的最新分析
A10网络公司的价值公平吗?
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 7130万美元 | 6420万美元 | 6030万美元 | 5810万美元 | 5700万美元 | 5650万美元 | 5650万美元 | 5690万美元 | 5750万美元 | 5820万美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@-6.09% | Est@-3.67% | Est@-1.98% | Est@-0.79% | Est@0.04% | Est@0.62% | Est@1.03% | Est@1.32% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@7.5% | 66.3美元 | 55.6美元 | 48.5美元 | 43.5美元 | 39.6美元 | 36.6美元 | 34.0美元 | 31.9美元 | 29.9美元 | 28.2美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=4.14亿美元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用7.5%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=5800万美元×(1+2.0%)?(7.5%-2.0%)=11亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=11亿美元?(1+7.5%)10=5.19亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,未来现金流的现值为9.33亿美元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。与目前16.6美元的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司似乎相当昂贵。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
纽约证券交易所:ATEN贴现现金流2022年12月18日重要假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将A10网络视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了7.5%,这是基于杠杆率为0.995的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
A10网络的SWOT分析
- 目前没有债务。
- 股息由收益和现金流支付。
- ATEN的股息信息。
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- 与软件市场上前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- 基于市盈率和估计公允价值的昂贵。
- 据预测,该公司的年收入增速将超过美国市场。
- 据预测,该公司的年收入增速将低于美国市场。
- 分析师们还对Aten做出了什么预测?
下一步:
就构建你的投资论文而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。股价超过内在价值的原因是什么?对于A10网络,我们已经收集了三个你应该进一步研究的额外方面:
- 风险:例如,我们已经确定了A10网络的2个警告标志这一点你应该知道。
- 未来收益:Aten的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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