China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the SHSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let's examine China Tourism Group Duty Free's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity.
Check out our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free
What Is China Tourism Group Duty Free Worth?
According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, I've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. I find that China Tourism Group Duty Free's ratio of 76.61x is above its peer average of 27.56x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Specialty Retail industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that China Tourism Group Duty Free's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will China Tourism Group Duty Free generate?
SHSE:601888 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 9th 2022
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. China Tourism Group Duty Free's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in 601888's positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe 601888 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on 601888 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for 601888, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with China Tourism Group Duty Free (including 1 which is a bit concerning).
If you are no longer interested in China Tourism Group Duty Free, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在过去的几个月中,中国旅游集团免税有限公司(SHSE: 601888)在上海证券交易所的股价大幅上涨了20%以上。作为一只被分析师高度报道的大盘股,你可以假设最近公司前景的任何变化都已经计入了该股。但是,这只股票还能以相对便宜的价格交易吗?让我们更详细地研究一下中国旅游集团免税店的估值和前景,以确定是否还有讨价还价的机会。
查看我们对中国旅游集团免税店的最新分析
中国旅游集团免税价值多少?
根据我的价格倍数模型,我将公司的市盈率与行业平均水平进行比较,该股目前看起来很昂贵。在这种情况下,我使用了市盈率(PE),因为没有足够的信息来可靠地预测股票的现金流。我发现中国旅游集团免税店的76.61倍的比率高于同行平均水平的27.56倍,这表明该股的交易价格高于专业零售行业。如果你喜欢这只股票,你可能需要留意未来可能的价格下跌。鉴于中国旅游集团免税店的份额相当不稳定(即相对于其他市场,其价格变动被放大),这可能意味着价格可能会下跌,从而为我们将来提供另一次买入的机会。这是基于其高贝塔值,这是衡量股价波动的好指标。
中国旅游集团免税店将带来什么样的增长?
SHSE: 601888 2022 年 12 月 9 日收益和收入增长
当你考虑购买股票时,未来前景是一个重要的方面,特别是如果你是一个寻求投资组合增长的投资者。尽管价值投资者会争辩说,最重要的是相对于价格的内在价值,但更有说服力的投资论点是以低廉的价格获得高增长潜力。中国旅游集团免税店在未来几年的收益预计将翻一番,这表明未来的前景非常乐观。这应该会带来更强的现金流,从而带来更高的股票价值。
这对你意味着什么
你是股东吗? 在601888的乐观前景中,市场的定价似乎是真实的,股票的交易价格高于行业价格倍数。以目前的价格,股东们可能会问另一个问题——我应该卖出吗?如果你认为601888的交易价格应该低于其当前价格,那么高价卖出并在其价格跌至行业市盈率时再次回购可能是有利可图的。但是在做出这个决定之前,先看看它的基本面是否发生了变化。
你是潜在的投资者吗? 如果你关注601888已有一段时间了,那么现在可能不是进入该股的最佳时机。价格已经超过了行业同行,这意味着错误定价可能没有更多的好处。但是,601888的乐观前景令人鼓舞,这意味着值得更深入地研究其他因素,以利用下一次价格下跌的机会。
考虑到这一点,除非我们对风险有透彻的了解,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。为此,你应该了解 4 个警告标志 我们发现了中国旅游集团免税店(包括有点令人担忧的 1 个)。
如果您不再对中国旅游集团免税店感兴趣,可以使用我们的免费平台查看我们的其他50多只具有高增长潜力的股票清单。
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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。