As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000958) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 18% in three years, versus a market return of about 27%.
While the last three years has been tough for SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Check out our latest analysis for SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings actually managed to grow EPS by 5.2% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 23% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SZSE:000958 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 4th 2022
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was -15%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings returned a loss of 8.7% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 17%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 1.8% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings that you should be aware of.
We will like SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
作为投资者,值得努力确保您的整体投资组合超过市场平均水平。但是在任何投资组合中,都可能有一些股票未达到该基准。从长远来看,我们很遗憾地向大家报告 国家电投产融控股有限公司 (SZSE: 000958) 股东们也有过这样的经历,股价在三年内下跌了18%,而市场回报率约为27%。
尽管过去三年对SPIC工业金融控股的股东来说是艰难的,但上周显示出了前景的迹象。因此,让我们看一下长期基本面,看看它们是否是负回报的驱动力。
查看我们对SPIC产融控股的最新分析
尽管一些人继续教导高效市场假说,但事实证明,市场是反应过度的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。考虑市场对公司的看法发生了怎样的变化的一种不完美但简单的方法是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管股价在三年内下跌,但在此期间,SPIC工业金融控股公司实际上设法使每股收益每年增长5.2%。这真是个难题,表明可能有一些东西暂时提振了股价。或者,过去的增长预期可能不合理。
值得一看其他指标,因为每股收益的增长似乎与股价的下跌不符。
我们认为,三年来收入以每年23%的速度下降,可能使一些股东希望出售。这并不奇怪,因为在没有收入增长的情况下,每股收益增长似乎不太可能持续很长时间。
公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看确切数字)。
深交所:000958 2022 年 12 月 4 日收益和收入增长
资产负债表的实力至关重要。可能值得一看我们的 免费的 报告其财务状况如何随着时间的推移而变化。
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。股价回报仅反映股价的变化,而股息回报率则包括股息的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何贴现融资或分拆的收益。可以公平地说,TSR更全面地描绘了支付股息的股票。我们注意到,SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings在过去3年中的总回报率为-15%,好于上述股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了分歧是没有道理的!
不同的视角
尽管SPIC Industroy-Finance Holdings在过去十二个月中回报了8.7%的亏损令人痛心,但整个市场实际上更糟,亏损了17%。不幸的是,去年的表现可能表明挑战悬而未决,因为它比过去五年中1.8%的年化亏损还要糟糕。尽管一些投资者擅长收购陷入困境(但仍被低估)的公司,但不要忘记巴菲特说,“转机很少会转机”。我发现从长远来看,将股价视为业务表现的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,我们已经确定了 国家电投产融控股有 1 个警告信号 你应该知道的。
如果我们看到一些大规模的内幕收购,我们会更喜欢SPIC工业金融控股公司。在我们等待的时候,看看这个 免费的 最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章无意提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。