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There Are Reasons To Feel Uneasy About China Railway Group's (SHSE:601390) Returns On Capital
There Are Reasons To Feel Uneasy About China Railway Group's (SHSE:601390) Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at China Railway Group (SHSE:601390), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for China Railway Group, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.066 = CN¥45b ÷ (CN¥1.5t - CN¥854b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
So, China Railway Group has an ROCE of 6.6%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 6.9%, it's still a low return by itself.
View our latest analysis for China Railway Group
SHSE:601390 Return on Capital Employed October 4th 2022In the above chart we have measured China Railway Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering China Railway Group here for free.
The Trend Of ROCE
In terms of China Railway Group's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 8.5%, but since then they've fallen to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a related note, China Railway Group has decreased its current liabilities to 56% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE. Keep in mind 56% is still pretty high, so those risks are still somewhat prevalent.
What We Can Learn From China Railway Group's ROCE
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by China Railway Group's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And investors appear hesitant that the trends will pick up because the stock has fallen 31% in the last five years. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.
China Railway Group does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
While China Railway Group may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
如果我们想要找到一个潜在的多管齐下的人,往往有潜在的趋势可以提供线索。一种常见的方法是尝试找到一家拥有退货已使用资本(ROCE)正在增加,同时也在增长金额已动用资本的比例。归根结底,这表明它是一家正在以越来越高的回报率对利润进行再投资的企业。虽然,当我们看到中国中铁集团(上海证券交易所:601390),它似乎没有勾选所有这些框。
资本回报率(ROCE):它是什么?
对于那些不确定ROCE是什么的人,它衡量的是一家公司可以从其业务中使用的资本产生的税前利润。要计算中国中铁集团的这一指标,公式如下:
已动用资本回报率=息税前收益(EBIT)?(总资产-流动负债)
0.066=CN元450亿?(CN元1.5T-CN元854亿)(根据截至2022年6月的往绩12个月计算).
所以,中国中铁集团的净资产收益率为6.6%。尽管这与6.9%的行业平均水平一致,但这本身仍然是一个低回报。
查看我们对中铁集团的最新分析
上证所:2022年10月4日资本回报率为601390在上面的图表中,我们比较了中国中铁集团之前的净资产收益率和之前的业绩,但可以说,未来更重要。如果你愿意,你可以在这里查看中国中铁集团分析师的预测免费的。
ROCE的发展趋势
就中国中铁集团历史上的ROCE运动而言,这一趋势并不美妙。大约五年前,资本回报率为8.5%,但自那以来已降至6.6%。与此同时,该公司正在利用更多资本,但这在过去12个月的销售额方面没有太大变化,因此这可能反映了较长期的投资。该公司可能需要一段时间才能开始看到这些投资带来的收益变化。
与此相关的是,中国中铁集团已将其流动负债降至总资产的56%。因此,我们可以将其中一些因素与净资产收益率的下降联系起来。更重要的是,这可以降低业务的某些方面的风险,因为现在该公司的供应商或短期债权人为其运营提供的资金减少了。由于企业基本上是用自有资金为更多的运营提供资金,你可以说这降低了企业产生净资产收益率的效率。请记住,56%仍然是相当高的,所以这些风险在某种程度上仍然很普遍。
我们可以从中铁集团ROCE中学到什么
综上所述,虽然我们对中国中铁集团对自己业务的再投资多少感到鼓舞,但我们意识到回报正在缩水。投资者似乎对趋势是否会回升犹豫不决,因为该股在过去五年中下跌了31%。总而言之,内在的趋势并不是典型的多重投放者,所以如果这是你想要的,我们认为你在其他地方可能会有更多的运气。
不过,我们发现,中国中铁集团确实存在一些风险在我们的投资分析中出现了2个警告信号,其中一件让我们有点不舒服……
虽然中国中铁集团目前的回报率可能不是最高的,但我们已经编制了一份目前股本回报率超过25%的公司名单。看看这个免费在这里列出。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
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