Far From Oversold, SoFi Technologies Inc Could Keep Moving Lower
Far From Oversold, SoFi Technologies Inc Could Keep Moving Lower
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To investors bullish on SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock, the recent performance of its shares may seem irrational. In their view, the market is failing to factor in the potential tailwind stemming from the lifting of the student loan moratorium starting Jan. 1, 2023.
给看好的投资者索菲科技(纳斯达克股票代码：SO菲)，其股票最近的表现可能看起来不理性。在他们看来，市场未能考虑到2023年1月1日开始取消学生贷款禁令可能带来的顺风。
After this happens, this fintech firm will supposedly benefit from a big jump in demand for its student lending refinancing products. In turn, enabling SoFi to deliver results ahead of expectations, which will spark a recovery for its hard-hit shares.
在这种情况发生后，金融科技的这家公司应该会受益于对其学生贷款再融资产品需求的大幅增长。反过来，使SoFi能够提供超出预期的业绩，这将刺激其遭受重创的股票出现反弹。
In my view, the market is not ignorant of this factor. It's just that negative factors like high inflation, rising interest rates and growing recession risk far outweigh it.
在我看来，市场并不是对这一因素一无所知。只是高通胀、利率上升和日益严重的衰退风险等负面因素远远超过了这一点。
If anything, buzz about this student loan catalyst is for now helping to soften the blow. This points to big downside ahead once the buzz surrounding this would-be catalyst starts to dissipate in a few months.
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是关于这一助学贷款催化剂的传言目前有助于减轻打击。这表明，一旦围绕这一潜在催化剂的传言在几个月后开始消散，未来将出现巨大的下行空间。
SOFI Stock Is Seriously Mispriced
索菲股票严重定价错误
Last week, SoFi Technologies hit a new all-time low. To fans of this stock, this may appear to be a can't-miss buying opportunity. In their view, shares have become the victim of severe market mispricing.
上周，SoFi Technologies创下历史新低。对于这只股票的粉丝们来说，这似乎是一个不容错过的预期买入机会。在他们看来，股票已成为严重市场错误定价的受害者。
I agree that SOFI stock is mispriced, but not in the same way the bulls see it. Instead of being undervalued, despite the student loan catalyst, shares are instead overvalued. The hope and hype among some investors about this factor is helping to partially counter the negative factors driving most investors to bid the stock lower.
我同意索菲的股票定价错误，但与看涨人士的看法不同。尽管存在助学贷款的催化剂，但股价非但没有被低估，反而被高估了。一些投资者对这一因素的希望和炒作有助于在一定程度上抵消推动大多数投资者降低股价的负面因素。
Bullish investors are overestimating the impact of SoFi's student loan catalyst. Analyst estimates, which call for nearly 40% revenue growth next year, already take into account the fact the company's student loan refinancing business is just about to exit its current state of near-dormancy.
看涨的投资者高估了SoFi助学贷款催化剂的影响。分析师预计，该公司明年的营收将增长近40%，这已经考虑到该公司的助学贷款再融资业务即将摆脱当前的近乎休眠状态。
It may prove difficult for SoFi to deliver results that beat sell-side forecasts. For instance, more recent borrowers may have little incentive to refinance their loans. From July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, both subsidized and unsubsidized student loans were issued at a fixed interest rate of just 2.75%, well below the rates the company is currently quoting.
事实可能会证明，SoFi很难提供超出卖方预测的业绩。例如，较新的借款人可能没有什么动力为他们的贷款进行再融资。从2020年7月1日到2021年6月30日，补贴和非补贴学生贷款的固定利率仅为2.75%，远低于该公司目前的报价利率。
More Declines Likely as Headwinds Persist
逆风持续，可能会出现更多下跌
SOFI stock and perceived student loan tailwind benefits are a matter of "when" not "if. Unfortunately, come next year when repayments are back in full swing, they are unlikely to result in better-than-expected quarterly results for SoFi Technologies.
SOFI的股票和预期的助学贷款顺风效益是一个“何时”而不是“是否”的问题。不幸的是，明年当还款全面展开时，它们不太可能为SoFi Technologies带来好于预期的季度业绩。
As this happens, you can expect excitement about the student loan catalyst to disappear. Bad news indeed, as the above-mentioned headwinds applying pressure to the stock carry on, having a negative impact on both SoFi's operating performance, as well as its stock price.
随着这种情况的发生，人们对助学贷款催化剂的兴奋情绪将会消失。事实上，坏消息是，随着上述对该股施加压力的逆风继续下去，对SoFi的运营业绩和股价都产生了负面影响。
With the Federal Reserve expected to continue raising interest rates to fight inflation, a 2023 recession appears to be a near possibility. This could affect SoFi's results in the coming year and extend its timeline to profitability.
由于预计美联储将继续提高利率以对抗通胀，2023年出现经济衰退的可能性似乎很小。这可能会影响SoFi来年的业绩，并将其时间表延长至盈利。
If that's not bad enough, rising rates could hurt SOFI shares in another way. As I've argued before, higher rates mean a lower present valuation for this growth stock, valued primarily on future results.
如果这还不够糟糕的话，利率上升可能会以另一种方式损害索菲的股价。正如我以前说过的，较高的利率意味着这种成长型股票目前的估值较低，主要是根据未来的业绩进行估值。
Admittedly, downside risk from here may be minimal. This stock currently has a tangible book value of $3.34 per share. That said, keep in mind that along with moderate downside, there's minimal upside potential.
诚然，目前的下行风险可能微乎其微。该股目前的有形账面价值为每股3.34美元。话虽如此，请记住，除了温和的下跌外，上涨的可能性也很小。
The Verdict on SOFI Stock
对索菲股票的判决
Besides the risk that SOFI has a way to go before bottoming out, is the risk that this former market darling, down nearly 80% from its all-time high, will fail to make much of a comeback even after today's macro uncertainties pass.
除了索菲在触底之前还有一段路要走的风险，还有一个风险是，这个曾经的市场宠儿，从历史高点下跌了近80%，即使在今天的宏观不确定性过去后，也无法卷土重来。
Take a look at long-term earnings forecasts, which call for earnings per share (or EPS) of 40 cents by 2025. Mature fintech stocks trade for 20 to 25 times earnings. Best case scenario, SOFI could return to the high single-digits over the course of several years. A return to anywhere near its past all-time high (nearly $25 per share) does not appear likely.
看看长期收益预测，预计到2025年每股收益(EPS)为40美分。成熟的金融科技股票的市盈率为20至25倍。最好的情况是，SOFI可能会在几年内回到个位数的高位。看起来不太可能回到过去的历史高点(每股近25美元)。
Taking everything into account, from the possibility student loan-related buzz fades, to the risk headwinds persist, and that a recovery happens slowly, SOFI stock remains a risky play worth skipping out on.
考虑到一切因素，从与助学贷款相关的传言可能消退，到风险逆风持续，以及复苏缓慢，索菲的股票仍然是一个值得跳过的高风险投资。
SOFI stock earns a D rating in Portfolio Grader.
索菲股票获得D评级投资组合评分器.
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
在文章发表之日，Louis Navellier和主要负责本文的InvestorPlace Research工作人员都没有(直接或间接)持有本文提到的证券的任何头寸。
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