For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:QSR) shareholders, since the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 27%. Even worse, it's down 10% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 8.6% in the same time.
Since Restaurant Brands International has shed US$676m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Restaurant Brands International
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Restaurant Brands International actually managed to grow EPS by 5.5% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Restaurant Brands International has maintained its top line over three years, so we doubt that has shareholders worried. So it might be worth looking at how revenue growth over time, in greater detail.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NYSE:QSR Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2022
Restaurant Brands International is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Restaurant Brands International, it has a TSR of -17% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Restaurant Brands International shares lost 11% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 22%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 0.8% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Restaurant Brands International (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对于许多投资者来说,选股的主要着眼点是产生高于整体市场的回报。但如果你试着选股,你的风险回报就会低于市场。不幸的是,从长远来看,情况就是这样餐饮品牌国际公司。(纽约证券交易所股票代码:QSR)股东,因为股价在过去三年里下跌了26%,远远低于约27%的市场回报率。更糟糕的是,它在大约一个月的时间里下跌了10%,这一点都不好玩。但这可能与糟糕的市场状况有关--同期股市下跌了8.6%。
由于餐饮品牌国际在过去7天里市值缩水6.76亿美元,让我们看看长期下跌是否由企业的经济状况推动。
查看我们对国际餐饮品牌的最新分析
不可否认,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管股价在三年多的时间里下跌,但在这段时间里,餐饮品牌国际实际上实现了每股收益5.5%的增长。考虑到股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑,每股收益不是这段时间内业务表现的良好指南(可能是因为一次性的亏损或收益)。或者,该公司过去被过度炒作,因此其增长令人失望。
值得看看其他指标,因为每股收益的增长似乎与下跌的股价不匹配。
我们注意到,股息似乎足够健康,所以这可能无法解释股价下跌的原因。餐饮品牌国际在三年多的时间里一直保持着营收,因此我们怀疑这是否让股东感到担忧。因此,可能值得更详细地研究收入是如何随着时间的推移而增长的。
该公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
纽约证券交易所:QSR收益和收入增长2022年10月3日
餐饮品牌国际是一只知名的股票,有大量的分析师报道,这表明未来的增长有一定的可见性。鉴于我们有相当多的分析师预测,可能很值得查看以下内容免费描绘共识估计的图表。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。就餐饮品牌国际而言,它在过去3年的TSR为-17%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!
不同的视角
虽然看到Restaurant Brands International的股价全年下跌11%当然令人失望,但这并没有股市下跌22%那么糟糕。不幸的是,去年的表现可能预示着尚未解决的挑战,因为它比过去五年0.8%的年化损失还要糟糕。虽然一些投资者擅长买入那些陷入困境(但估值仍然被低估)的公司,但不要忘记巴菲特曾说过,扭亏为盈的情况很少出现转机。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,我们发现国际餐饮品牌的3个警告标志(1让我们有点不舒服!)在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
当然了,如果你把目光投向别处,你可能会发现这是一笔很棒的投资。所以让我们来看看这个免费我们预计收益将会增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。