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We Think NagaCorp (HKG:3918) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think NagaCorp (HKG:3918) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for NagaCorp
What Is NagaCorp's Debt?
As you can see below, NagaCorp had US$544.8m of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$215.3m in cash, and so its net debt is US$329.5m.
SEHK:3918 Debt to Equity History October 3rd 2022How Strong Is NagaCorp's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, NagaCorp had liabilities of US$187.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$623.3m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$215.3m in cash and US$37.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$558.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Since publicly traded NagaCorp shares are worth a total of US$2.88b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While NagaCorp has a quite reasonable net debt to EBITDA multiple of 2.4, its interest cover seems weak, at 0.56. The main reason for this is that it has such high depreciation and amortisation. While companies often boast that these charges are non-cash, most such businesses will therefore require ongoing investment (that is not expensed.) In any case, it's safe to say the company has meaningful debt. Shareholders should be aware that NagaCorp's EBIT was down 75% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine NagaCorp's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, NagaCorp recorded free cash flow worth 52% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
On the face of it, NagaCorp's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making NagaCorp stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
传奇基金经理理想汽车·卢曾说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。我们注意到NagaCorp Ltd.(HKG:3918)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?
债务在什么时候是危险的?
一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对NagaCorp的最新分析
NagaCorp的债务是什么?
如下所示,截至2022年6月,NagaCorp的债务为5.448亿美元,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表查看更多详细信息。然而,它也有2.153亿美元的现金,因此其净债务为3.295亿美元。
联交所:3918债转股历史2022年10月3日NagaCorp的资产负债表有多强劲?
根据最新报告的资产负债表,NagaCorp有1.879亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,6.233亿美元的负债在12个月后到期。作为抵消,它有2.153亿美元的现金和3750万美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额为5.585亿美元,比现金和短期应收账款的总和还要多。
由于公开交易的NagaCorp股票总价值28.8亿美元,这种负债水平似乎不太可能构成重大威胁。但有足够的负债,我们肯定会建议股东继续监控未来的资产负债表。
为了评估一家公司的债务相对于它的收益,我们计算它的净债务除以它的利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆盖)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
尽管NagaCorp的净债务与EBITDA之比相当合理,为2.4倍,但其利息覆盖似乎较弱,为0.56。主要原因是它的折旧和摊销如此之高。虽然公司经常吹嘘这些费用是非现金的,但大多数此类业务因此都需要持续投资(即不计入费用)。无论如何,可以有把握地说,该公司有大量债务。股东们应该知道,NagaCorp去年的息税前利润下降了75%。如果这种下降趋势继续下去,那么偿还债务将比在素食大会上出售鹅肝酱更难。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定NagaCorp未来保持健康资产负债表的能力。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要看看息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在最近三年中,NagaCorp记录的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的52%,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这大致是正常的。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
我们的观点
从表面上看,NagaCorp的利息担保让我们对该股持怀疑态度,其息税前利润增长率并不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空荡荡的餐厅更具诱惑力。但从好的方面来看,它将息税前利润转换为自由现金流是一个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。看看资产负债表,并考虑到所有这些因素,我们确实认为债务让NagaCorp的股票有点风险。有些人喜欢这种风险,但我们注意到了潜在的陷阱,所以我们可能更喜欢它背负更少的债务。鉴于我们对该公司的资产负债表持保留态度,检查内部人士最近是否一直在抛售股票似乎是明智的。
如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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