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These 4 Measures Indicate That Longfor Group Holdings (HKG:960) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Longfor Group Holdings (HKG:960) Is Using Debt Extensively
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Longfor Group Holdings Limited (HKG:960) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Longfor Group Holdings
What Is Longfor Group Holdings's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Longfor Group Holdings had debt of CN¥235.8b, up from CN¥210.0b in one year. However, it also had CN¥87.3b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥148.5b.
SEHK:960 Debt to Equity History October 1st 2022How Healthy Is Longfor Group Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Longfor Group Holdings had liabilities of CN¥442.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥221.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥87.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥133.1b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥443.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥128.5b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Longfor Group Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Longfor Group Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.3, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. One way Longfor Group Holdings could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 10%, as it did over the last year. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Longfor Group Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Longfor Group Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
While Longfor Group Holdings's level of total liabilities has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. We think that Longfor Group Holdings's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Longfor Group Holdings (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
马克斯说得很好,他不是担心股价波动,而是我担心的是永久亏损的可能性……我认识的每个实际投资者都担心。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。重要的是龙湖集团控股有限公司(HKG:960)确实有债务。但这笔债务对股东来说是一个担忧吗?
什么时候债务是个问题?
债务帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是用新资本还是用自由现金流。资本主义的一部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,破产的企业被银行家无情地清算。尽管这并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司永久性地稀释股东的权益,因为贷款人迫使他们以令人沮丧的价格筹集资金。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,特别是当它用能够以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先同时考虑现金和债务水平。
查看我们对龙湖集团控股的最新分析
龙湖集团控股的债务是什么?
下图显示,截至2022年6月,龙湖集团控股的债务为2358亿加元,高于一年内的210亿加元。你可以点击查看更多细节。然而,它也有873亿元现金,因此其净债务为1485亿元。
联交所:960债转股历史2022年10月1日龙湖集团控股的资产负债表有多健康?
根据最近一次上报的资产负债表,龙湖集团控股有4422亿加元的负债在12个月内到期,2211亿加元的负债在12个月后到期。作为对这些债务的抵销,该公司有873亿加元的现金以及价值1331亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额为人民币4430亿元,超过了现金和短期应收账款的总和。
这一赤字给这家1285亿元人民币的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个庞然大物耸立在凡人之上。因此,我们肯定认为股东需要密切关注这一事件。归根结底,如果债权人要求偿还债务,龙湖集团控股很可能需要进行一次重大的资本重组。
我们通过查看公司的净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),并计算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖利息支出(利息覆盖)的容易程度,来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力的关系。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
龙湖集团控股的债务与息税前利润之比为3.3%,这意味着大量债务,但对于大多数类型的业务来说,这仍然是相当合理的。但它的息税前利润大约是利息支出的1K倍,这意味着该公司并没有真的付出高昂的成本来维持这样的债务水平。即使低成本被证明是不可持续的,这也是一个好迹象。龙湖集团控股摆脱债务的一种方法是停止更多借款,但像去年一样继续以10%左右的息税前利润增长。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定龙湖集团控股能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,合乎逻辑的一步是看看息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,龙湖集团控股录得的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的78%,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这一数字接近正常水平。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
我们的观点
而龙湖集团控股的总负债水平让我们感到紧张。换句话说,它的利息覆盖和息税前利润转换为自由现金流都是令人鼓舞的迹象。综合前述几个数据点,我们认为龙湖集团控股的债务确实使其具有一定的风险。这不一定是一件坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们已经确定龙湖集团控股的4个警告信号(1不能被忽视)你应该知道。
如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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