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A Look At The Fair Value Of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ)
A Look At The Fair Value Of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ)
How far off is Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Domino's Pizza
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$513.1m | US$563.7m | US$620.6m | US$616.0m | US$616.6m | US$620.7m | US$627.1m | US$635.3m | US$644.9m | US$655.4m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x7 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 0.1% | Est @ 0.65% | Est @ 1.04% | Est @ 1.31% | Est @ 1.5% | Est @ 1.63% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$479 | US$491 | US$504 | US$467 | US$437 | US$410 | US$387 | US$366 | US$346 | US$328 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$655m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.2%– 1.9%) = US$13b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$13b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$6.4b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$11b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$316, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:DPZ Discounted Cash Flow September 30th 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Domino's Pizza as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.229. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Domino's Pizza, there are three important items you should further research:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Domino's Pizza (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for DPZ's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Domino‘s Pizza,Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:DPZ)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过提取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到今天的价值,来看看股票的定价是否公平。在这种情况下,我们将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对Domino‘s Pizza的最新分析
一步一步地计算
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 5.131亿美元 | 5.637亿美元 | 6.206亿美元 | 6.16亿美元 | 6.166亿美元 | 6.207亿美元 | 6.271亿美元 | 6.353亿美元 | 6.449亿美元 | 6.554亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x7 | 分析师x3 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x1 | Est@0.1% | Est@0.65% | Est@1.04% | Est@1.31% | EST@1.5% | Est@1.63% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@7.2% | 479美元 | 491美元 | 504美元 | 467美元 | 437美元 | 410美元 | 387美元 | 366美元 | 346美元 | 328美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=42亿美元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用7.2%的权益成本,将未来现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=6.55亿美元×(1+1.9%)?(7.2%-1.9%)=130亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=130亿美元?(1+7.2%)10=64亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流是110亿美元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前316美元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
纽约证券交易所:DPZ贴现现金流2022年9月30日假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Domino‘s Pizza视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了7.2%,这是基于杠杆率为1.229的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
下一步:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是你需要为一家公司评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于Domino‘s Pizza,有三个重要的项目需要进一步研究:
- 风险例如,我们发现Domino‘s Pizza的3个警告标志(有两个有点令人不快!)在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 管理:内部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市场对DPZ未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解对CEO薪酬和治理因素的见解。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对纽约证交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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