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Is 2023 The 'Trickle Down Year' For NOV? Why This Wall Street Analyst Is Bullish
Is 2023 The 'Trickle Down Year' For NOV? Why This Wall Street Analyst Is Bullish
Bank Of America analyst Chase Mulvehill upgraded NOV (NYSE:NOV) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $19.
Key Takeaways: As NOV crushed earnings in the first half of 2022, management has guided the second half of 2022 adjusted EBITDA of 45% to 55% above the first half of the year levels.
Mulvehill expects NOV to continue to benefit from rising oil field services capex, better pricing/fixed cost absorption and easing supply chains.
NOV, formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, is a leading supplier of oil and gas drilling rig equipment and products, such as downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing.
See Also: How To Trade Nike Stock Before And After Q1 Earnings
The company is set to become debt neutral by year-end 2023, and Mulvehill reported that he expects some of the least downside in consensus estimates among its peers should a recession occur.
For the fiscal year 2022, the B of A analysts forecasted EBITDA to be $640 million, up 1% from the consensus estimates, with earnings per share of 69 cents per share, up 28% from consensus estimates.
Mulvehill explained that with stronger pricing in new orders and higher volume allowing for better cost absorption, the analyst expects NOV's CAPS' segment to achieve EBITDA margin growth to high single digits by the year end and closer to the 2018 to 2019 peak of 14% over the subsequent 1-2 years, assuming no major recession.
Additionally, NOV's Saudi rig manufacturing facility is ramping up and its offshore wind installation-related revenues are set to double to $400mm year-over-year.
The Bull Case: Mulvehill reported if this cycle proves to have legs, it's not unlikely for NOV's total EBITDA margins to get to 15% eventually, which would imply potential EBITDA in the range of $1.2 billion to 1.4 billion.
With greater than 60% of NOV's 2023 forecasted revenues set to come from relatively more stable international markets, and net debt expected to fall to below zero by year-end 2023, NOV is more defensive when compared to its peers, Mulvehill mentioned.
See Also: Recession Signal? Softbank Vision Fund Weighs Downsizing Up To 30%
Therefore, if a recession is avoided, which would likely provide upside to our new estimates, we think its likely that NOV would revisit returning cash to shareholders in 2023, said Mulvehill.
The analyst's full-year EBITDA guidance for 2023 and 2024 is forecasted at $898 million and $1.1 billion, up 1% and 8% from consensus estimates, respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 13% and 11% above consensus estimates.
Competitor Buy Ratings: The analysts upgraded its price target on ChampionX (NASDAQ:CHX) to $22. The BofA analysts also issued Buy ratings for Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)
Photo By: Nestor Galina From Flickr
Bank Of America analyst Chase Mulvehill upgraded NOV (NYSE:NOV) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $19.
美国银行分析师蔡斯·穆尔韦希尔已升级十一月(纽约证券交易所股票代码:11月)从中性到买入,目标价为19美元。
Key Takeaways: As NOV crushed earnings in the first half of 2022, management has guided the second half of 2022 adjusted EBITDA of 45% to 55% above the first half of the year levels.
主要收获:由于11月份压低了2022年上半年的收益,管理层引导2022年下半年调整后的EBITDA比上半年的水平高出45%至55%。
Mulvehill expects NOV to continue to benefit from rising oil field services capex, better pricing/fixed cost absorption and easing supply chains.
穆尔韦希尔预计,11月份将继续受益于油田服务资本支出的上升、更好的定价/固定成本吸收以及供应链的放松。
NOV, formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, is a leading supplier of oil and gas drilling rig equipment and products, such as downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing.
Nov前身为National Oilwell Varco,是石油和天然气钻井设备和产品的领先供应商,如井下工具、钻杆和油井套管。
See Also: How To Trade Nike Stock Before And After Q1 Earnings
参见:如何在第一季度收益之前和之后交易耐克股票
The company is set to become debt neutral by year-end 2023, and Mulvehill reported that he expects some of the least downside in consensus estimates among its peers should a recession occur.
该公司将在2023年底实现债务中性,穆尔韦希尔报告称,他预计,如果发生经济衰退,同行的普遍估计将出现一些最小的下行幅度。
For the fiscal year 2022, the B of A analysts forecasted EBITDA to be $640 million, up 1% from the consensus estimates, with earnings per share of 69 cents per share, up 28% from consensus estimates.
对于2022财年,美国银行分析师预测EBITDA为6.4亿美元,比普遍预期高出1%,每股收益为69美分,比普遍预期高出28%。
Mulvehill explained that with stronger pricing in new orders and higher volume allowing for better cost absorption, the analyst expects NOV's CAPS' segment to achieve EBITDA margin growth to high single digits by the year end and closer to the 2018 to 2019 peak of 14% over the subsequent 1-2 years, assuming no major recession.
穆尔韦希尔解释说,随着新订单的更强劲定价和更高的销量,从而能够更好地吸收成本,分析师预计,假设没有重大衰退,11月份的Caps部门到年底将实现EBITDA利润率增长至较高的个位数,并在随后的1-2年内更接近2018至2019年14%的峰值。
Additionally, NOV's Saudi rig manufacturing facility is ramping up and its offshore wind installation-related revenues are set to double to $400mm year-over-year.
此外,11月在沙特的钻井平台制造设施正在扩大,其海上风电安装相关收入将同比翻一番,达到4亿美元。
The Bull Case: Mulvehill reported if this cycle proves to have legs, it's not unlikely for NOV's total EBITDA margins to get to 15% eventually, which would imply potential EBITDA in the range of $1.2 billion to 1.4 billion.
牛市案例:穆尔韦希尔报告称,如果这轮周期被证明是站得住脚的,那么11月份的EBITDA总利润率最终达到15%并不是不可能的,这意味着潜在的EBITDA在12亿至14亿美元之间。
With greater than 60% of NOV's 2023 forecasted revenues set to come from relatively more stable international markets, and net debt expected to fall to below zero by year-end 2023, NOV is more defensive when compared to its peers, Mulvehill mentioned.
穆尔韦希尔提到,由于11月2023年预测收入的60%以上将来自相对稳定的国际市场,预计到2023年底净债务将降至零以下,与同行相比,11月更具防御性。
See Also: Recession Signal? Softbank Vision Fund Weighs Downsizing Up To 30%
另见:衰退信号?软银愿景基金权衡裁员至多30%
Therefore, if a recession is avoided, which would likely provide upside to our new estimates, we think its likely that NOV would revisit returning cash to shareholders in 2023, said Mulvehill.
The analyst's full-year EBITDA guidance for 2023 and 2024 is forecasted at $898 million and $1.1 billion, up 1% and 8% from consensus estimates, respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 13% and 11% above consensus estimates.
因此,如果经济衰退得以避免,我们认为11月可能会重新考虑在2023年向股东返还现金,这可能会给我们的新估计带来好处,马尔韦希尔表示。
该分析师对2023年和2024年全年EBITDA的指引预计分别为8.98亿美元和11亿美元,分别比普遍预期高出1%和8%。预计每股收益将分别比普遍预期高出13%和11%。
Competitor Buy Ratings: The analysts upgraded its price target on ChampionX (NASDAQ:CHX) to $22. The BofA analysts also issued Buy ratings for Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)
竞争对手购买评级:分析师将其目标价上调至X锦标赛(纳斯达克:CHX)至22美元。美国银行的分析师还发布了买入评级斯伦贝谢(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SLB)和哈里伯顿(纽约证券交易所代码:HAL)
Photo By: Nestor Galina From Flickr
图片来源:来自Flickr的Nestor Galina
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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