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3 Healthcare Stocks to Sell Before They Die

3 Healthcare Stocks to Sell Before They Die

3只医疗保健类股,临死前卖出
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/30 11:50

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The Fed's key interest rate target now stands at 3%-3.25%, way up from 0%-0.25% at the beginning of the year. That means, for all companies, borrowing money is becoming much more expensive. As a result, healthcare companies losing a great deal of money will have trouble obtaining new loans they can afford to pay off, and many such firms will go out of business.

美联储的关键利益现在的利率目标目前为3%-3.25%,远高于年初的0%-0.25%。这意味着,对所有公司来说,借钱的成本都要高得多。因此,损失惨重的医疗保健公司将很难获得他们有能力偿还的新贷款,许多这样的公司将倒闭。

For investors, it's essential to avoid the stocks of such companies, and some readers may even want to consider selling the shares of these firms short. To help achieve those goals, I will identify three healthcare stocks to sell before they die.

对于投资者来说,避开这些公司的股票是必不可少的,一些读者甚至可能想要考虑卖空这些公司的股票。为了帮助实现这些目标,我将确定三只医疗保健股票在它们死前出售。

There are a few other important points to consider before reading this column. First, it takes drug makers at least several years to identify a promising drug candidate. Then, it has to run clinical trials, and obtain FDA approval. And the vast majority of drug candidates fail to obtain FDA approval.

在阅读本专栏之前,还有其他几个重要的问题需要考虑。首先,制药商至少需要几年时间才能确定一个有前途的候选药物。然后,它必须进行临床试验,并获得FDA的批准。而且绝大多数候选药物都未能获得FDA的批准。

Meanwhile, due to the increase in interest rates and the Fed's quantitative tightening program, institutional investors will be much less likely to speculate on healthcare companies that are losing a great deal of money and have little chance of making comebacks.

同时,由于加息和美联储的量化紧缩计划,机构投资者投机医疗保健公司的可能性将大大降低,这些公司亏损惨重,几乎没有机会卷土重来。

That said, here are three healthcare stocks to sell (or sell short) before they die:

话虽如此,这里有三只医疗保健类股可以在死前卖出(或做空):

IBIO
IBio
iBio $0.17
IBio$0.17
TDOC
TDOC
Teladoc $26.80
Teladoc$26.80
ALLK
ALLK
Allakos $6.08
阿拉科斯6.08美元

iBio (IBIO)

IBio(IBio)

Source: Shutterstock
消息来源:Shutterstock

In 2020, iBio (NYSEAMERICAN:IBIO) was one of the companies racing to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Although the company touted the plant-based technology that was supposed to enable it to develop vaccines relatively quickly, it fell far behind its competitors in the race to create a safe and effective vaccine for the coronavirus.

在2020年,IBio(纽约:iBio)是竞相开发冠状病毒疫苗的公司之一。尽管该公司曾吹捧基于植物的技术这本应使其能够相对快速地开发疫苗,但在创造安全有效的冠状病毒疫苗的竞赛中,它远远落后于竞争对手。

In September 2020, citing the company's tardiness and the many other coronavirus vaccines that were more advanced than its offering, I wrote, "I remain bearish on IBIO stock at this point."

2020年9月,以该公司的拖延和许多其他冠状病毒疫苗为理由比它的产品更先进,我写道:“目前我仍然看空iBio的股票。”

Fast forward to earlier this month, when iBio finally announced that it was giving up its efforts to obtain FDA approval for its coronavirus shot.

快进到本月早些时候,iBio终于到了宣布,它正在放弃为其冠状病毒疫苗获得FDA批准的努力。

Meanwhile, as of May, iBio said it "plans to have its lead immuno-oncology asset, IBIO-101, enter [a] phase 1″ trial next year. That means its new lead drug candidate is several years away from generating any revenue. Moreover, the chances of it ever being approved are very low.

与此同时,截至5月份,, IBio表示IT“计划”为了让其领先的免疫肿瘤学资产iBio-101明年进入第一阶段试验。这意味着该公司新的候选主药还需要几年时间才能产生任何收入。此外,该法案获得批准的可能性非常低。

In fiscal 2022, iBio lost $50.3 million, with just $39.5 million of "cash, cash equivalents and investments in debt securities" left as of June 30. That means it will probably need more money to survive by the end of 2023 or mid-2024.

在2022财年,iBio亏损了5030万美元,只有39.5美元截至6月30日,留下了数百万“现金、现金等价物和债务证券投资”。这意味着它可能需要更多资金才能在2023年底或2024年年中生存下来。

Put all of this information together, and iBio is probably heading for bankruptcy, or selling itself for a price way below the current level of IBIO stock.

综合所有这些信息,iBio可能会走向破产,或者以远低于目前iBio股票水平的价格出售自己。

Teladoc (TDOC)

Teladoc(TDOC)

Source: Piotr Swat / Shutterstock.com
来源:Piotr Swat/Shutterstock.com

Teladoc (NYSE:TDOC) seemed headed for deep trouble, and I was bearish on it a couple of years ago when it was flying high. In December 2020, shortly after the company had reported that its sales had jumped 110% in the third quarter that ended in September 2020, I wrote, 

Teladoc(纽约证券交易所代码:TDOC))似乎走向了深深的麻烦,而我对此持悲观态度几年前当它飞得很高的时候。2020年12月,就在该公司报告称,截至2020年9月的第三季度销售额跃升110%后不久,我写道:

given the likely intense competition that the company will face, the high valuation of TDOC stock, and the strong chances of its revenue growth slowing, I suggest that investors sell the shares.

考虑到该公司可能面临的激烈竞争,TDOC股票的高估值,以及其收入增长放缓的可能性很大,我建议投资者出售这些股票。

At that point, the shares were changing hands for over $200. Yesterday they closed at $26.23.

当时,这些股票的成交价超过了200美元。昨日,该股收于26.23美元。

And in the past 12 months, TDOC had a net income of -$9.87 billion; further, the company's total debt as of June 30 stood at $1.6 billion, while it had only $884 million of cash.

在过去的12个月里,TDOC净收益为-98.7亿美元;此外,该公司的截至6月30日,它的总债务为16亿美元,而它只有8.84亿美元的现金。

With telemedicine likely to become less popular as worries about the coronavirus fade further and Teladoc still facing a great deal of competition, the company, at best, will have to take out high-interest loans or sell its stock or itself at meager prices going forward.

随着对冠状病毒的担忧进一步消退,远程医疗可能变得不那么受欢迎,Teladoc仍然面对激烈的竞争,该公司充其量只能获得高息贷款,或者在未来以极低的价格出售股票或自己。

Allakos (ALLK)

阿拉科斯(ALLK)

Source: Pavel Kapysh/ Shutterstock.com
来源:Pavel Kapysh/Shutterstock.com

Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) is now a beleaguered drug maker. But, like Teladoc, not that long ago, its shares were soaring.

阿拉科斯(纳斯达克:ALLK)现在是一家四面楚歌的制药商。但是,和Teladoc一样,就在不久前,它的股价也在飙升。

On Mar. 1, 2019, ALLK stock changed hands for $40.50. On Dec. 1, 2020, it had jumped to $140. Yesterday it closed at $5.60.

2019年3月1日,ALLK股票易手40.50美元。2020年12月1日,金价跃升至140美元。昨日收盘价为5.60美元。

In December 2021, however, two Phase 3 trials of the company's drug, Lirentelimab, showed that it lowered the number of problematic white blood cells of patients with eosinophilic gastrointestinal diseases but did not significantly reduce the patient's symptoms.

然而,在2021年12月,两个阶段3试验vt.的E公司的药物Lirentlimab显示,它降低了嗜酸性胃肠道疾病患者的问题白细胞数量但并未显著减轻患者的症状。

After analyzing a subgroup of patients without certain conditions from a third Phase 3 trial, the company found that its drug had failed to improve those patients' symptoms by a significant amount as well. And Lirentelimab did not improve the signs of the entire group of 93 patients either.

在分析了来自第三阶段3试验的一组没有特定疾病的患者后,该公司发现,其药物也未能显著改善这些患者的症状。Lirentlimab也没有改善整个93名患者的体征。

For now, Allakos is shifting its focus, planning to report, in the second half of 2023, data from a Phase 2 trial of the drug as a treatment for "atopic dermatitis and chronic spontaneous urticaria." Unfortunately for the company, any Phase 3 trial results that would make investors and lenders optimistic about Lirentelimab are still likely a couple of years away. Further, Lirentelimab seems to be the only one of the company's drugs undergoing clinical trials.

目前,Allakos正在转移重点,计划在2023年下半年报告该药作为治疗“特应性皮炎”的第二阶段试验的数据和慢性病对该公司来说不幸的是,任何会让投资者和贷款人对Lirentlimab持乐观态度的3期试验结果可能还需要几年的时间。此外,Lirentlimab似乎是唯一该公司的药品正在进行临床试验。

In the past 12 months, the company's free cash flow was -$349.3 million. At the end of Q2, it had just $212 million in cash and $51.3 million in debt. Thus, Allakos is going to have to try to raise funds next year at high-interest rates. And given the data on Lirentelimab, it will probably have difficulty doing so. As a result, it is one of the top healthcare stocks to sell.

在过去12个月里,该公司的自由现金流是-3.493亿美元。截至第二季度末,它只有2.12亿美元的现金和5130万美元的债务。因此,阿拉科斯明年将不得不尝试以高利率筹集资金。考虑到Lirentlimab上的数据,它可能很难做到这一点。因此,它是最值得出售的医疗保健类股之一。

On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文发表之日,拉里·拉默并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。

Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 15 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel's largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been GE, solar stocks, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer.

拉里·拉默从事美国股市研究和撰写文章已有15年之久。他曾受雇于《苍蝇报》和以色列最大的商业报纸《环球报》。拉里于2015年开始为InvestorPlace撰写专栏。在他非常成功的反向投资者选择中,有通用电气、太阳能股票和Snap。你可以通过StockTwits@larryramer联系到他。

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