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Is Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Post Holdings
What Is Post Holdings's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Post Holdings had debt of US$6.14b at the end of June 2022, a reduction from US$7.45b over a year. However, it does have US$747.4m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$5.39b.
NYSE:POST Debt to Equity History September 30th 2022How Healthy Is Post Holdings' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Post Holdings had liabilities of US$757.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$7.09b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$747.4m and US$545.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$6.56b.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$4.95b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Post Holdings has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.4 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 4.5 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Post Holdings grew its EBIT by 4.4% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Post Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Post Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 51% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
On the face of it, Post Holdings's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Post Holdings has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Post Holdings (2 are significant) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。重要的是邮政控股公司(纽约证券交易所代码:POST)确实背负着债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?
为什么债务会带来风险?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的股份,才能控制债务。当然,许多公司利用债务为增长提供资金,没有任何负面后果。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
查看我们对Post Holdings的最新分析
Post Holdings的债务是什么?
下图(您可以单击查看更多详细信息)显示,截至2022年6月底,Post Holdings的债务为61.4亿美元,低于一年内的74.5亿美元。然而,它确实有7.474亿美元的现金来抵消这一点,导致净债务约为53.9亿美元。
纽约证券交易所:公布债务转股权历史2022年9月30日Post Holdings的资产负债表健康程度如何?
我们可以从最近的资产负债表中看到,Post Holdings有7.577亿美元的债务在一年内到期,超过一年的债务有70.9亿美元到期。另一方面,它有7.474亿美元的现金和价值5.453亿美元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债比现金和(近期)应收账款之和高出65.6亿美元。
当你考虑到这一不足超过了该公司49.5亿美元的市值时,你很可能倾向于专注于审查资产负债表。在该公司不得不迅速清理其资产负债表的情况下,股东似乎可能会遭受广泛的稀释。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
Post Holdings的债务与EBITDA之比相当高,为5.4,这表明债务负担相当大。然而,其4.5%的利息覆盖率相当强劲,这是一个好迹象。Post Holdings去年的息税前利润增长了4.4%。这并不令人难以置信,但在偿还债务方面,这是一件好事。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定Post Holdings能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在最近三年中,Post Holdings录得的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的51%,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这一数字接近正常水平。这种自由现金流使公司在适当的时候处于偿还债务的有利地位。
我们的观点
从表面上看,Post Holdings的总负债水平让我们对该股持怀疑态度,其净债务与EBITDA之比并不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空荡荡的餐厅更诱人。但至少它将息税前利润转换为自由现金流并不是那么糟糕。总体而言,我们认为,可以公平地说,Post Holdings拥有足够的债务,资产负债表周围存在一些真正的风险。如果一切顺利,这应该会提高回报,但另一方面,债务增加了永久资本损失的风险。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们已经确定Post Holdings的3个警告信号(2个是重要的)你应该意识到。
归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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