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Shareholders in Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank (HKG:9889) Are in the Red If They Invested a Year Ago
Shareholders in Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank (HKG:9889) Are in the Red If They Invested a Year Ago
It's normal to be annoyed when stock you own has a declining share price. But in the short term the market is a voting machine, and the share price movements may not reflect the underlying business performance. So while the Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (HKG:9889) share price is down 12% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -8.1%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 25%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank because we don't have a long term history to look at.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Even though the Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
It seems quite likely that the market was expecting higher growth from the stock. But other metrics might shed some light on why the share price is down.
We don't see any weakness in the Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SEHK:9889 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 30th 2022This free interactive report on Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank the TSR over the last 1 year was -8.1%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Given that the broader market dropped 25% over the year, the fact that Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank shareholders were down 8.1% isn't so bad. Unfortunately for shareholders, the share price momentum hasn't improved much with the stock down 6.4% in around 90 days. This doesn't look great to us, but it is possible that the market is over-reacting to prior disappointment. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
Of course Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
当你拥有的股票股价下跌时,感到恼火是正常的。但在短期内,市场是一台投票机,股价走势可能不能反映潜在的业务表现。因此,虽然东莞农村商业银行股份有限公司。(HKG:9889)去年股价下跌12%,股东总回报(包括股息)为-8.1%。这一总回报率实际上超过了25%的市场跌幅。我们不会急于对东莞农村商业银行下结论,因为我们没有很长的历史可看。
现在让我们来看看该公司的基本面,看看长期股东回报是否与基础业务的表现相匹配。
查看我们对东莞农村商业银行的最新分析
虽然有效市场假说继续被一些人传授,但事实证明,市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管东莞农村商业银行的股价在一年中有所下跌,但其每股收益实际上有所改善。可能是股价之前被过度炒作了。
市场似乎很有可能期待该股实现更高的增长。但其他指标可能会为股价下跌的原因提供一些线索。
我们没有看到东莞农村商业银行的股息有任何疲软,因此稳定的派息并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。营收趋势似乎无法解释股价下跌的原因。当然,除非市场预期收入会上升。
该公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
联交所:9889盈利及收入增长2022年9月30日这免费如果你想进一步调查东莞农村商业银行的股票,那么关于该银行资产负债表实力的互动报告是一个很好的起点。
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。我们注意到,东莞农村商业银行过去1年的TSR为-8.1%,好于上述股价回报率。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
考虑到大盘去年下跌了25%,东莞农村商业银行股东下跌8.1%的事实并不是那么糟糕。对股东来说,不幸的是,股价势头并没有太大改善,股价在大约90天的时间里下跌了6.4%。这在我们看来并不是很好,但市场可能对之前的失望反应过度了。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。一个恰当的例子:我们发现了东莞农村商业银行的2个警示标志你应该知道,其中一个是有点令人不快的。
当然了东莞农村商业银行可能不是最值得买入的股票。所以你可能想看看这个免费成长型股票的集合。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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