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7 Real Estate Stocks to Sell Before They Die

7 Real Estate Stocks to Sell Before They Die

7只房地产股要在死前卖出
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/29 17:02

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It's been a tumultous couple of years of real estate stocks. The pandemic caused unprecedented changes in people's daily lives and working habits. Some categories of real estate investment trusts (REITs) benefitted from these adjustments. Sub-sectors such as data centers and industrial warehouses enjoyed a surge in demand during the pandemic period.

这是房地产类股动荡的几年。疫情给人们的日常生活和工作习惯带来了前所未有的变化。一些类别的房地产投资信托基金(REITs)受益于这些调整。在大流行期间,数据中心和工业仓库等子部门的需求激增。

Many categories of real estate, however, did not fare so well. One category that has taken a great deal of heat is malls and shopping centers. The past two years have seen a tremendous move toward e-commerce instead of brick and mortar retail. Offices are another category of real estate stocks facing problems. Workers are returning to the office little by little. But telecommuting is here to stay for many roles, and still more firms are adopting hybrid work models that require less-expensive office space. Office REITs are struggling to adapt to this change.

然而,许多类别的房地产表现并不那么好。一个备受关注的类别是购物中心和购物中心。在过去的两年里,电子商务取代了实体零售,出现了巨大的变化。写字楼是另一类面临问题的地产股。工人们正在一点一点地回到办公室。但远程办公将在这里保留许多角色,而且更多的公司正在采用混合工作模式,这种模式需要更便宜的办公空间。写字楼REITs正在努力适应这种变化。

It's not just offices and shopping mall real estate stocks that are struggling, either. The huge rise in interest rates and change in credit market conditions are creating problems for several other REIT subsectors. Investors should be particularly careful with these seven real estate stocks.

陷入困境的也不仅仅是写字楼和购物中心的房地产类股。利率的大幅上升和信贷市场状况的变化正在给其他几个REIT部门带来问题。投资者对这七只地产股要格外小心。

SPG Simon Property Group $89.13 MAC Macerich $7.99 IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties $88.09 GNL Global Net Lease $10.31 OPI Office Properties Trust $13.54 SKT Tanger Factory Outlets $13.59 MPW Medical Properties Trust $11.44
SPG Simon Property Group$89.13 Mac Macerich$7.99 IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties$88.09 GNL Global Net Lease$10.31 OPI Office Properties Trust$13.54 SKT Tanger Factory Outlets$13.59 MPW Medical Properties Trust$11.44

Simon Property Group (SPG)

西蒙地产集团(Simon Property Group)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
来源:乔纳森·韦斯/Shutterstock.com

A niche has developed on YouTube of folks videoing old malls in various states of decline. They range from malls that are still in operation with mostly empty hallways, to completely closed and abandoned ones. People have taken to viewing these "dead mall" videos, sometimes nostalgically, to remember a time when these buildings were still centers of commerce and social activity.

YouTube上已经形成了一个利基市场,人们可以在不同的衰落状态下拍摄旧商场。它们的范围从仍在运营、走廊大多空荡荡的商场,到完全关闭和废弃的商场。人们开始观看这些“死气沉沉的购物中心”的视频,有时是怀旧的,以纪念这些建筑仍然是商业和社会活动中心的时代。

Not all malls are dead malls, of course. But an increasing number are. A 2020 report suggested that 25% of America's remaining 1,000 malls would shutter within the next 3-5 years. The collapse of formerly key department stores such as Sears and JC Penney has hastened this decline as malls are left without the anchor tenants these companies once provided.

当然,并不是所有的商场都是死气沉沉的。但越来越多的人是这样的。2020年的一份报告显示,美国剩余的1000家购物中心中有25%将在未来3-5年内关门。西尔斯(Sears)和JC Penney等昔日主要百货商店的倒闭加速了这种衰落,因为商场失去了这些公司曾经提供的主要租户。

Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) has some of the nation's best malls. It has also been aggressive in diversifying into outlets and foreign real estate. Still, this company is fighting the inexorable decline of its core asset group. Simon made it through the pandemic in one piece, but the long-term outlook is cloudy at best. And given current inflation and the possibility of an economic slowdown, both shoppers and retailers may be in a tough spot this holiday season.

西蒙物业(纽约证券交易所代码:SPG)拥有一些全国最好的购物中心。它还积极进军门店和海外房地产领域的多元化业务。尽管如此,这家公司仍在与其核心资产集团不可阻挡的衰落作斗争。西蒙安然无恙地度过了大流行,但长期前景充其量也是阴云密布。考虑到目前的通货膨胀和经济放缓的可能性,购物者和零售商在这个假日季节都可能处于艰难的境地。

Macerich (MAC)

Macerich(MAC)

Source: Shutterstock
消息来源:Shutterstock

Macerich (NYSE:MAC) is another shopping mall REIT. The company has traditionally focused on high-end shopping malls. This trust's focus on luxury has insulated its malls, to an extent. While the middle class mall of old anchored by JC Penney and Sears is not a viable model nowadays, high-end malls are still hanging on.

马塞里奇(纽约证券交易所股票代码:MAC)是另一家购物中心房地产投资信托基金。该公司传统上专注于高端购物中心。这家信托基金对奢侈品的关注在一定程度上隔离了它的购物中心。虽然以JC Penney和西尔斯为支柱的老式中产阶级购物中心如今已经不再是一个可行的模式,但高端购物中心仍在坚持。

Unfortunately for real estate stocks in this space, massive capital costs are required to build and maintain its luxury malls. While business is still okay at Macerich's properties, rents simply haven't gone up fast enough to provide much profit. In the late 2010s, MAC stock had already plunged from $50 to $20 as investors noted the darkening outlook for the company.

不幸的是,对于这个领域的房地产股来说,建造和维护其豪华购物中心需要巨额资金成本。虽然Macerich的物业生意仍然不错,但租金的上涨速度还不够快,无法带来太多利润。在2010年代末,由于投资者注意到公司前景黯淡,Mac的股价已经从50美元暴跌至20美元。

The pandemic accelerated this trend; MAC stock fell to $6 in 2020 and the company's dividend was slashed. It's easy to blame Covid-19 for the company's problems. But the truth is that Macerich has a ton of debt and would have had a challenging future regardless. Between the lingering effects of the past two years and now sharply higher interest rates and a weakening economic situation, Macerich shares seem destined to slump below their prior lows.

疫情加速了这一趋势;Mac股票在2020年跌至6美元,该公司的股息大幅削减。人们很容易将该公司的问题归咎于新冠肺炎。但事实是,马塞里奇背负着沉重的债务,无论如何都会有一个充满挑战的未来。在过去两年的挥之不去的影响以及现在大幅提高的利率和疲软的经济形势下,Macerich的股价似乎注定要跌破之前的低点。

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)

创新工业产权(IIPR)

Source: Don Pablo / Shutterstock.com
来源:Don Pablo/Shutterstock.com

Innovative Industrial Properties (NASDAQ:IIPR) is a specialty REIT focused on cannabis. Specifically, Innovative Industrial buys greenhouses and cannabis cultivation properties ,and then rents them out to marijuana growers.

创新的工业产权纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:IIPR)是一家专注于大麻的专业房地产投资信托基金。具体地说,创新工业公司购买温室和大麻种植物业,然后将其出租给大麻种植者。

Originally, this was a great business model due to a specific quirk. Cannabis remains illegal on a federal level, and thus banks typically won't lend to marijuana companies. This lack of capital can make it prohibitive for cannabis companies to finance their production facilites.

最初,由于一个特殊的怪癖,这是一个很棒的商业模式。在联邦层面上,大麻仍然是非法的,因此银行通常不会向大麻公司放贷。由于缺乏资金,大麻公司无法为其生产设施提供资金。

Innovative Industrial came up with the solution. It raised funds from investors and then uses those to finance the cultivation companies. At first, Innovative Industrial was the only game in town and earned massive returns on its invested capital. However, competition has surged into the arena as more REITs and specialty lenders go after the same market.

创新工业公司提出了解决方案。它从投资者那里筹集资金,然后用这些资金为种植公司提供资金。起初,创新工业是镇上唯一的游戏,并从其投资资本中获得了巨额回报。然而,随着更多的房地产投资信托基金和专业贷款机构追逐同一市场,竞争已进入该领域。

Meanwhile, some of Innovative's tenants are running into trouble. The downside of earning 20% on your capital, after, all, is that the tenant may not be able to afford such punitive rents. Major tenant King's Garden defaulted earlier this summer, sending IIPR stock down double digits. More tenants appear to be a on a weak financial footing. And to add to the headache, if and when marijuana is legalized nationally, banks will be able to lend to cannabis farmers directly, making Innovative's future much less certain.

与此同时,Innovative的一些租户也遇到了麻烦。毕竟,从你的资本中赚取20%的不利之处是,租户可能负担不起这样的惩罚性租金。今年夏天早些时候,主要租户国王花园发生违约,导致IIPR股价下跌两位数。更多的租户似乎处于财务状况不佳的状态。更令人头疼的是,如果大麻在全国范围内合法化,银行将能够直接向大麻种植者放贷,这将使Innovative的未来变得更加不确定。

Global Net Lease (GNL)

全球净租赁(GNL)

Source: Pixelbliss / Shutterstock.com
来源:Pixelbliss/Shutterstock.com

Global Net Lease (NYSE:GNL) is a REIT focused on net lease properties in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Triple net lease is a type of real estate transaction that involves leading a building to a tenant, where the tenant covers major operating expenses.

环球网租(纽约证券交易所代码:GNL)是一家专注于美国、加拿大和欧洲净租赁物业的房地产投资信托基金。三重净租赁是一种房地产交易类型,涉及将大楼引向租户,租户支付主要运营费用。

Triple net leases are historically a solid-performing category of the REIT category. Accordingly, many investors like Global Net Lease's business model overall. However, the firm has always struggled to achieve the same level of success as rivals such as Realty Income (NYSE:O). Thanks to this, Global Net Lease has a high cost of capital, meaning it has to pay more to get funds from investors for new properties.

三重净租赁历来是REIT类别中表现稳健的类别。因此,许多投资者总体上喜欢环球网租赁的商业模式。然而,该公司一直在努力实现与竞争对手相同的成功水平,例如房地产收入(纽约证券交易所代码:O)。由于这一点,Global Net Lease的资金成本很高,这意味着它必须支付更多费用才能从投资者那里获得新物业的资金。

This has led to Global Net Lease diluting its shareholder base considerably while offering an unusually high dividend yield. This worked out alright prior to 2020, but now the firm's weaker balance sheet is catching up to it. The firm's European exposure is largely in the United Kingdom. There, a fiscal crisis has sent the value of the British Pound plummeting and will impact Global Net Lease's revenues from that market. Right now, GNL stock is yielding 14%. Investors might think that's a great deal. But, more likely, Global Net will not be able to maintain its current payout, and thus will have to reduce its dividend.

这导致Global Net Lease在提供异常高的股息收益率的同时,大幅稀释了其股东基础。这在2020年前还不错,但现在该公司较弱的资产负债表正在迎头赶上。该公司在欧洲的敞口主要在英国。在那里,财政危机导致英镑价值暴跌,并将影响Global Net Lease在该市场的收入。目前,GNL股票的收益率为14%。投资者可能会认为这笔交易很划算。但更有可能的是,Global Net将无法维持目前的派息,因此将不得不减少股息。

Office Properties Trust (OPI)

办公物业信托(OPI)

Source: GaudiLab / Shutterstock
来源:GaudiLab/Shutterstock

Office Properties Trust (NASDAQ:OPI) is one of the smaller struggling real estate stocks which, like Global Net Lease, seems likely to cut its dividend going forward. Office Properties Trust shares currently offer an eye-popping 15% dividend yield. That might seem like a great offer for retirees and income-seeking investors.

办公物业信托基金纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:OPI)是规模较小、处境艰难的房地产股之一,与环球网租赁一样,它似乎可能会削减未来的股息。Office Properties Trust股票目前提供了令人瞠目结舌的15%的股息收益率。对于退休人员和寻求收入的投资者来说,这似乎是一个很好的提议。

However, Office Properties Trust gets its income from offices. It doesn't own the top offices in a given market, either. It owns cheaper properties that historically attracted significant interest from tenants looking for a more affordable office lease.

然而,Office Properties Trust的收入来自写字楼。它也不拥有某一特定市场的顶级写字楼。它拥有更便宜的房产,这些房产历来吸引了寻求更实惠写字楼租赁的租户的浓厚兴趣。

Now, however, companies can pick whatever office they want for new leases, given the low occupancy rates across the industry. Long story short, unless you own the newest, most modern, and most glamorous offices in a market, it's going to be rough sailing getting new tenants. Investors buying OPI stock for the 15% yield are looking at the past, when Office Properties Trust had a stable business outlook. Now, however, the company will likely have to accept much lower rates for its buildings going forward, leading to a major dividend cut.

然而,现在,鉴于整个行业的入住率很低,公司可以选择任何他们想要的办公室作为新的租约。长话短说,除非你在一个市场上拥有最新、最现代、最迷人的办公室,否则寻找新租户将是一件艰难的事情。以15%的收益率购买OPI股票的投资者正在回顾过去,当时Office Properties Trust的业务前景稳定。然而,现在,该公司很可能不得不接受未来建筑的低得多的费率,导致大幅削减股息。

Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT)

丹吉尔工厂奥特莱斯(SKT)

Source: Ritu Manoj Jethani / Shutterstock.com
来源:Ritu Manoj Jethani/Shutterstock.com

Tanger Factory Outlets (NYSE:SKT) is a shopping center REIT focused on outlets. The outlet center model was a great template for real estate stocks 20 years ago. Operators such as Tanger or Simon would build a major shopping destination in a tourist area or along a major highway in between two big cities. People would go to the outlet center and get bargains that weren't available at shopping malls or in downtown shopping areas. The thinking was that outlets gave retailers an alternative venue to clear out certain kinds of products, while giving shoppers a fun and novel bargain-hunting experience.

丹吉尔工厂奥特莱斯(纽约证券交易所代码:SKT)是一家专注于奥特莱斯的购物中心。奥特莱斯中心模式是20年前房地产股的一个很好的模板。丹吉尔或西蒙等运营商将在两个大城市之间的旅游区或骇维金属加工沿线建设一个主要的购物目的地。人们会去奥特莱斯中心,买到商场或市中心购物区买不到的便宜货。他们的想法是,奥特莱斯为零售商提供了一个替代场所来清仓某些类型的产品,同时给购物者提供了一种有趣而新颖的便宜货体验。

It's far from certain that outlets make much sense in 2022, however. The internet has made it easy to go bargain-shopping without ever leaving your home. Meanwhile, discount retailers like Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) set up shop within major cities, making it possible to get the experience without having to drive to a far-away outlet center.

然而,在2022年开设门店是否有多大意义还远未确定。互联网让你足不出户就能轻松地买到便宜货。与此同时,折扣零售商喜欢罗斯·斯托雷斯(纳斯达克:ROST)在大城市设立店铺,这样就可以获得体验,而不必开车去遥远的直销中心。

Tanger remains focused on its outlet business and hasn't made serious efforts to pivot the business. Like Macerich, Tanger's financial results were poor prior to the pandemic with the company consistently reporting flat-to-slightly-down financial results in the late 2010s. Now, things have gone from bad to worse for the REIT in the post-2020 landscape. Tanger may hang on for a little while longer, but the long-term prognosis for both Tanger and the outlet shopping experience seem grim.

Tanger仍专注于直销业务,并未认真努力将业务重心转移。与Macerich一样,在疫情爆发前,Tanger的财务业绩也很糟糕,该公司在2010年代末的财务业绩一直持平至略有下降。现在,在2020年后的情况下,REIT的情况每况愈下。Tanger可能会再坚持一段时间,但对Tanger和奥特莱斯购物体验的长期预测似乎都很严峻。

Medical Properties Trust (MPW)

医疗财产信托基金(MPW)

Source: venusvi / Shutterstock.com
来源:venusvi/Shutterstock.com

Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPW) is a REIT focused on ownership of hospitals. The firm has gone on a tremendous buying spree, acquiring hospitals left and right. Unfortunately, it has run into trouble as its largest tenant, Steward Health Care Systems, has lost $800 million in recent years. Medical Properties Trust has seemingly had to step in and lend large sums of money to Steward and its CEO directly to keep the struggling hospital system going. As Steward made up 30% of Medical Properties Trust's revenues in 2020, any default here could be devastating.

医疗财产信托基金(纽约证券交易所代码:MPW)是一家专注于医院所有权的房地产投资信托基金。该公司一直在大举收购,收购了各家医院。不幸的是,它遇到了麻烦,因为它最大的租户Steward Health Care Systems近年来亏损了8亿美元。医疗财产信托公司似乎不得不介入,直接向斯图尔特及其首席执行官提供大笔资金,以维持苦苦挣扎的医院系统的运转。由于Steward占2020年医疗财产信托收入的30%,任何违约都可能是毁灭性的。

Short sellers have been hounding MPW stock all year, and with good reason. Shares continue to slide, and the trust's now-9% dividend yield seems increasingly tenuous.

卖空者全年都在追逐MPW的股票,这是有充分理由的。股价继续下滑,该信托基金目前9%的股息收益率似乎越来越微不足道。

Adding to the above point, there has been huge trading in put options on Medical Properties Trust, specifically for its October 2021 options expiry. On one day alone, last week, more than 40,000 put options changed hands. This is tremendous volume for a small and relatively under-the-radar REIT, suggesting that someone is making a big bet on bad news about a tenant or possible dividend cut in the near future.

除此之外,医疗财产信托基金的看跌期权交易规模巨大,特别是在2021年10月期权到期的情况下。仅上周的一天,就有超过4万份看跌期权易手。对于一家规模较小、相对低调的房地产投资信托基金来说,这是一个巨大的交易量,这表明有人正在大举押注于有关租户或可能在不久的将来削减股息的坏消息。

On the date of publication, Ian Bezek did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文发表之日,Ian Bezek并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

伊恩·贝泽克已经为InvestorPlace.com和Seeking Alpha撰写了1000多篇文章。他还曾担任纽约对冲基金Kerrisdale Capital的初级分析师,该基金的资产规模为3亿美元。你可以在Twitter上通过@irbezek联系到他。

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