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Investors Five-year Losses Continue as Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (HKG:2689) Dips a Further 17% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
Investors Five-year Losses Continue as Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (HKG:2689) Dips a Further 17% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. Zooming in on an example, the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) share price dropped 69% in the last half decade. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 48% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 24% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 17% in the same period.
Since Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has shed CN¥4.8b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
View our latest analysis for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 5.8% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 21% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The low P/E ratio of 6.59 further reflects this reticence.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:2689 Earnings Per Share Growth September 28th 2022This free interactive report on Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s TSR for the last 5 years was -61%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) shareholders are down 45% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 23%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.
But note: Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
我们认为,明智的长期投资是一条可行的道路。但这并不意味着长期投资者可以避免巨额亏损。放大一个示例,玖龙纸业(集团)有限公司(HKG:2689)股价在过去五年下跌69%。对于长期持有者来说,这是一段不愉快的经历。受害的不只是长期持有者,因为该股去年下跌了48%。股价最近加速下跌,在过去三个月里下跌了24%。但这可能与疲软的市场有关,同期市场下跌了17%。
由于玖龙纸业(控股)在过去7天里市值缩水48亿元人民币,让我们看看长期下跌是否受到了企业经济的推动。
查看我们对玖龙纸业(控股)的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔的超级投资者沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性地反映一家企业的价值。考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
在股价下跌的五年间,玖龙纸业(控股)的每股盈利(EPS)每年下跌5.8%,EPS的跌幅小于股价每年21%的跌幅,这暗示市场最近对业务更加谨慎,6.59的低市盈率进一步反映了这种沉默。
您可以在下图中看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(单击图表可查看精确值)。
联交所:2689每股盈利增长2022年9月28日这免费如果你想进一步调查九龙纸业(控股)的股票,互动报告是一个很好的起点,它的收益、收入和现金流。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。碰巧,玖龙纸业(控股)最近5年的总回报率为-61%,超过了前面提到的股价回报率。公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
我们遗憾地报告,玖龙纸业(控股)的股东今年以来下跌了45%(即使包括股息)。不幸的是,这比大盘23%的跌幅还要糟糕。话虽如此,在下跌的市场中,一些股票不可避免地会被超卖。关键是要密切关注基本面的发展。不幸的是,去年的表现可能预示着尚未解决的挑战,因为它比过去五年10%的年化损失更糟糕。一般来说,股价长期疲软可能是一个坏信号,尽管反向投资者可能会希望研究这只股票,希望它能好转。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,我们已经确定玖龙纸业(控股)的3个警告标志(1是重要的),您应该知道。
但请注意:玖龙纸业(控股)可能不是最值得买入的股票。所以让我们来看看这个免费过去有盈利增长(以及进一步增长预测)的有趣公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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