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Is Sun Hung Kai Properties (HKG:16) A Risky Investment?
Is Sun Hung Kai Properties (HKG:16) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (HKG:16) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Sun Hung Kai Properties
What Is Sun Hung Kai Properties's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Sun Hung Kai Properties had HK$124.9b of debt, up from HK$116.9b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have HK$21.0b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about HK$104.0b.
SEHK:16 Debt to Equity History September 28th 2022How Strong Is Sun Hung Kai Properties' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Sun Hung Kai Properties had liabilities of HK$62.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$138.4b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$21.0b as well as receivables valued at HK$21.0b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$158.8b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of HK$257.6b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Sun Hung Kai Properties has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.9, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 21.7 is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. The bad news is that Sun Hung Kai Properties saw its EBIT decline by 10% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sun Hung Kai Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Sun Hung Kai Properties produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 54% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Neither Sun Hung Kai Properties's ability to grow its EBIT nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Sun Hung Kai Properties is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Sun Hung Kai Properties that you should be aware of before investing here.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
马克斯说得很好,他不是担心股价波动,而是我担心的是永久亏损的可能性……我认识的每个实际投资者都担心。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。我们注意到新鸿基地产有限公司(HKG:16)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但这笔债务对股东来说是一个担忧吗?
债务会带来什么风险?
当一家企业无法轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他债务就会变得有风险,无论是通过自由现金流还是通过以有吸引力的价格筹集资本。资本主义的一部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,破产的企业被银行家无情地清算。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
参见我们对新鸿基地产的最新分析
新鸿基地产的净负债是多少?
如下所示,截至2022年6月底,新鸿基地产的债务为1,249亿港元,高于一年前的1,169亿港元。单击图像了解更多详细信息。然而,它确实有210亿港元的现金抵消了这一影响,导致净债务约为1040亿港元。
联交所:16债转股历史2022年9月28日新鸿基地产的资产负债表有多强?
根据最近一次报告的资产负债表,新鸿基地产有624亿港元的负债在12个月内到期,1384亿港元的负债在12个月后到期。该公司有210亿港元现金及价值210亿港元的应收账款于12个月内到期,以抵销这些债务。因此,该公司的负债总额为1588亿港元,比现金和短期应收账款的总和还要多。
即使与其2576亿港元的庞大市值相比,这也是一个堆积如山的杠杆。如果它的贷款人要求它支撑资产负债表,股东可能会面临严重的稀释。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
新鸿基地产的债务与EBITDA之比为2.9,这意味着大量债务,但对于大多数类型的企业来说,这仍然是相当合理的。然而,其21.7的利息覆盖率非常高,表明债务的利息支出目前相当低。坏消息是,新鸿基地产的息税前利润比去年下降了10%。如果收入继续以这样的速度下降,那么处理债务将比带三个5岁以下的孩子去高档裤子餐厅更难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定新鸿基地产未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要看看息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年里,新鸿基地产产生了相当于息税前利润54%的稳健的自由现金流,这与我们预期的差不多。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
我们的观点
无论是新鸿基地产的息税前利润增长能力,还是其总负债水平,都让我们对其承担更多债务的能力失去了信心。但它的利息封面讲述了一个非常不同的故事,并暗示了一些弹性。综上所述,在我们看来,由于新鸿基地产的债务,它确实是一项有一定风险的投资。并不是所有的风险都是坏的,因为如果它得到了回报,它可以提高股价回报,但这种债务风险值得记住。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们发现新鸿基地产的1个警示标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
总而言之,有时候专注于甚至不需要债务的公司会更容易。读者可以访问净债务为零的成长型股票列表100%免费,现在。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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