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Are Investors Undervaluing Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR) By 21%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR) By 21%?
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Danaher
Is Danaher Fairly Valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$7.89b | US$8.90b | US$9.93b | US$10.3b | US$10.6b | US$10.9b | US$11.2b | US$11.5b | US$11.7b | US$12.0b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x7 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 3.09% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.51% | Est @ 2.34% | Est @ 2.22% | Est @ 2.13% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0% | US$7.4k | US$7.9k | US$8.3k | US$8.2k | US$7.9k | US$7.7k | US$7.4k | US$7.2k | US$6.9k | US$6.7k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$76b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$12b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.0%– 1.9%) = US$297b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$297b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= US$165b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$241b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$260, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:DHR Discounted Cash Flow September 28th 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Danaher as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.968. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Danaher, we've put together three fundamental aspects you should further examine:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Danaher we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does DHR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我们将通过估计丹纳赫公司(纽约证券交易所代码:DHR)的未来现金流并将其折现为现值,来估计该公司的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对Danaher的最新分析
丹纳赫的价值公平吗?
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 78.9亿美元 | 89亿美元 | 99.3亿美元 | 103亿美元 | 106亿美元 | 109亿美元 | 112亿美元 | 115亿美元 | 117亿美元 | 120亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x7 | 分析师x6 | 分析师x3 | 分析师x2 | Est@3.09% | Est@2.75% | Est@2.51% | Est@2.34% | Est@2.22% | Est@2.13% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@6.0% | 740万美元 | 790万美元 | 830万美元 | 820万美元 | 790万美元 | 770万美元 | 740万美元 | 720万美元 | 690万美元 | 670万美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=760亿美元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用6.0%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=120亿美元×(1+1.9%)?(6.0%-1.9%)=2970亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=2970亿美元?(1+6.0%)10=1650亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为2410亿美元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前260美元的股价,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,较目前的股价有21%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
纽约证券交易所:DHR贴现现金流2022年9月28日假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Danaher视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了6.0%,这是基于杠杆率为0.968的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要对一家公司进行评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于Danaher,我们总结了三个你应该进一步研究的基本方面:
- 风险:我们认为您应该评估丹纳赫的1个警告标志在投资这家公司之前,我们已经做了标记。
- 未来收益:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,DHR的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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