Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (HKG:586) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 63%. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 22%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 53% lower than three years ago). Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 19% in the same period.
After losing 8.2% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for China Conch Venture Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Unhappily, China Conch Venture Holdings had to report a 12% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 63% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 3.66.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:586 Earnings Per Share Growth September 28th 2022
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of China Conch Venture Holdings, it has a TSR of -47% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 22% in the twelve months, China Conch Venture Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 47% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Conch Venture Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
But note: China Conch Venture Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
被动投资指数基金是确保你自己的回报与整体市场大致匹配的好方法。虽然个别股票可能是大赢家,但更多的股票无法产生令人满意的回报。投资者在海螺创业控股有限公司(HKG:586)去年股价下跌了63%,尝到了苦涩的苦果。当你考虑到市场下跌了22%时,这是令人失望的。更糟糕的是,三年来的回报也真的令人失望(股价比三年前低了53%)。股东们最近的表现更加艰难,股价在过去90天里下跌了21%。但这可能与市场疲软有关,同期市场下跌19%。
在过去一周下跌8.2%后,有必要调查该公司的基本面,看看我们可以从过去的表现中推断出什么。
查看我们对海螺创业控股的最新分析
不可否认,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价随时间的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对一家公司的态度随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化。
不幸的是,海螺创业控股不得不报告去年每股收益下降了12%。每股收益的减少并不像63%的股价下跌那么糟糕。因此,一年前,市场似乎对这项业务过于自信。这种不那么有利的情绪反映在该公司目前3.66的市盈率上。
您可以在下图中看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(单击图表可查看精确值)。
联交所:每股盈利增长586 2022年9月28日
可能值得注意的是,首席执行官的薪酬低于类似规模公司的中位数。关注首席执行官的薪酬总是值得的,但更重要的问题是,该公司是否会在未来几年实现盈利增长。在买卖股票之前,我们总是建议仔细检查一下历史增长趋势,可在此处找到。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以海螺创业控股为例,其最近一年的总资产收益率为-47%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
虽然大盘在过去12个月里下跌了约22%,但海螺创业控股的股东表现更糟,损失了47%(甚至包括股息)。话虽如此,在下跌的市场中,一些股票不可避免地会被超卖。关键是要密切关注基本面的发展。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得6%的收益。最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此可能值得查看基本面数据,以寻找长期增长趋势的迹象。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。一个恰当的例子:我们发现了海螺创业控股的2个警告信号你应该意识到,其中有一个是不应该被忽视的。
但请注意:海螺创业控股可能不是最值得买入的股票。所以让我们来看看这个免费过去有盈利增长(以及进一步增长预测)的有趣公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。