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Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s (NYSE:HCC) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s (NYSE:HCC) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Warrior Met Coal's (NYSE:HCC) recent performance, when its stock has declined 23% over the past month. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Warrior Met Coal's ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
See our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Warrior Met Coal is:
48% = US$620m ÷ US$1.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.48 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Warrior Met Coal's Earnings Growth And 48% ROE
Firstly, we acknowledge that Warrior Met Coal has a significantly high ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 21% the company's ROE is quite impressive. For this reason, Warrior Met Coal's five year net income decline of 24% raises the question as to why the high ROE didn't translate into earnings growth. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.
So, as a next step, we compared Warrior Met Coal's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 28% in the same period.
NYSE:HCC Past Earnings Growth September 26th 2022Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Warrior Met Coal is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Warrior Met Coal Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Warrior Met Coal's low three-year median payout ratio of 1.8% (or a retention ratio of 98%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.
In addition, Warrior Met Coal has been paying dividends over a period of five years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 4.1% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 14% over the same period.
Summary
Overall, we feel that Warrior Met Coal certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Additionally, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that analysts expect the company's earnings to continue to shrink in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
看到Warrior Met Coal(纽约证券交易所股票代码:HCC)最近的表现,人们很难对其感到兴奋,因为它的股价在过去一个月里下跌了23%。然而,该公司的基本面看起来相当不错,长期财务状况通常与未来的市场价格走势保持一致。特别是今天我们将关注勇士Met Coal的净资产收益率。
净资产收益率,即股本回报率,是评估一家公司从股东那里获得投资回报的有效程度的有用工具。换句话说,它揭示了该公司成功地将股东投资转化为利润。
查看我们对Warrior Met Coal的最新分析
净资产收益率是如何计算的?
这个股本回报率公式是:
股本回报率=(持续经营的)净利润?股东权益
因此,根据上面的公式,Warrior Met Coal的ROE为:
48%=6.2亿美元×13亿美元(基于截至2022年6月的12个月的往绩)。
“回报”指的是企业在过去一年中获得的收入。这意味着,股东权益每增加1美元,公司就会产生0.48美元的利润。
净资产收益率与盈利增长之间有什么关系?
到目前为止,我们了解到净资产收益率是衡量一家公司盈利能力的指标。根据公司选择再投资或“保留”多少利润,我们就能够评估一家公司未来产生利润的能力。假设其他条件相同,与没有相同特征的公司相比,拥有更高股本回报率和更高利润保留率的公司通常会有更高的增长率。
勇士Met Coal的收益增长和48%的净资产收益率
首先,我们承认Warrior Met Coal拥有显著较高的净资产收益率。其次,即使与21%的行业平均水平相比,该公司的净资产收益率也相当令人印象深刻。出于这个原因,Warrior Met Coal的五年净利润下降了24%,这让人不禁要问,为什么高净资产收益率并没有转化为收益增长。因此,可能还有其他一些方面可以解释这一点。例如,公司将很大一部分收益作为股息支付,或者面临竞争压力。
因此,下一步,我们将Warrior Met Coal的表现与行业进行了比较,并失望地发现,尽管该公司的收益一直在缩水,但同期该行业的收益一直以28%的速度增长。
纽约证券交易所:HCC过去的收益增长2022年9月26日盈利增长是股票估值的一个重要因素。投资者应该尝试确定预期的收益增长或下降是否已计入价格,无论是哪种情况。这有助于他们确定这只股票是为光明还是黯淡的未来做准备。衡量预期收益增长的一个很好的指标是市盈率,它根据一只股票的盈利前景决定市场愿意为其支付的价格。因此,你可能想看看Warrior Met Coal相对于其行业是高市盈率还是低市盈率。
勇士大都会煤炭公司是否有效地对其利润进行了再投资?
Wrior Met Coal过去三年的低三年中值派息率为1.8%(或者说留存率为98%),这应该意味着该公司将保留大部分收益来推动增长,但该公司的收益实际上已经缩水。当一家公司保留了大部分收益时,通常不应该出现这种情况。因此,可能还有其他因素在起作用,可能会阻碍经济增长。例如,该业务一直面临一些不利因素。
此外,Warrior Met Coal在过去五年里一直在支付股息,这表明,尽管收益一直在下降,但管理层更倾向于继续支付股息。在研究了最新的分析师共识数据后,我们发现,该公司未来三年的派息率预计将上升至4.1%。因此,派息率的预期上升解释了为什么公司同期的净资产收益率(ROE)预计将下降至14%。
摘要
总体而言,我们认为,勇士Met Coal确实有一些积极的因素需要考虑。然而,考虑到高净资产收益率和高利润保留率,我们预计该公司将实现强劲的收益增长,但这里的情况并非如此。这表明,该业务可能面临一些外部威胁,这正在阻碍其增长。此外,最新的行业分析师预测显示,分析师预计该公司未来的收益将继续萎缩。要了解更多有关该公司未来收益增长预测的信息,请查看以下内容免费报告分析师对该公司的预测,以了解更多信息。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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