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Is Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) A Risky Investment?
Is Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Laredo Petroleum, Inc. (NYSE:LPI) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Laredo Petroleum
What Is Laredo Petroleum's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Laredo Petroleum had US$1.29b of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$147.5m, its net debt is less, at about US$1.14b.
NYSE:LPI Debt to Equity History September 20th 2022How Strong Is Laredo Petroleum's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Laredo Petroleum had liabilities of US$799.4m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.39b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$147.5m and US$205.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.84b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$1.12b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Laredo Petroleum would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.3 and interest cover of 4.6 times, it seems to us that Laredo Petroleum is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. We also note that Laredo Petroleum improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive US$583m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Laredo Petroleum's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Laredo Petroleum saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Laredo Petroleum's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Laredo Petroleum to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Laredo Petroleum (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。与许多其他公司一样拉雷多石油公司(纽约证券交易所代码:LPI)利用债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?
债务在什么时候是危险的?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,特别是当它用能够以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对拉雷多石油公司的最新分析
拉雷多石油公司的净债务是多少?
正如你在下面看到的,截至2022年6月,拉雷多石油公司的债务为12.9亿美元,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表查看更多详细信息。然而,由于它拥有1.475亿美元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为11.4亿美元。
纽约证券交易所:LPI债转股历史2022年9月20日拉雷多石油公司的资产负债表有多强劲?
根据最新报告的资产负债表,拉雷多石油公司有7.994亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,13.9亿美元的负债在12个月后到期。另一方面,它有1.475亿美元的现金和价值2.058亿美元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和近期应收账款的总和还要多18.4亿美元。
这一赤字给这家市值11.2亿美元的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个庞然大物耸立在凡人之上。因此,毫无疑问,我们会密切关注它的资产负债表。毕竟,如果拉雷多石油公司今天不得不偿还债权人的债务,它很可能需要进行一次大规模的资本重组。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
考虑到其净债务与EBITDA之比为1.3,利息覆盖率为4.6倍,在我们看来,拉雷多石油公司可能正在以相当合理的方式使用债务。但支付的利息肯定足以让我们思考它的债务负担能力有多强。我们还注意到,拉雷多石油公司的息税前利润从去年的亏损改善为正5.83亿美元。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但拉雷多石油公司未来能否保持健康的资产负债表,最重要的将是未来的收益。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润只是不能削减这一点。因此,有必要检查一下息税前收益(EBIT)中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的一年里,拉雷多石油公司的自由现金流总额为大幅负值。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况会在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着它使用债务的风险更大。
我们的观点
从表面上看,拉雷多石油将息税前利润转换为自由现金流让我们对该股持怀疑态度,其总负债水平并不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空荡荡的餐厅更具诱惑力。但从好的方面来看,它的净债务与EBITDA之比是一个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。我们非常清楚,由于拉雷多石油公司的资产负债表状况良好,我们认为其风险确实相当大。因此,我们对这种动物的警惕几乎就像饥饿的小猫害怕掉进主人的鱼塘一样:正如他们所说的那样,一次被咬,加倍害羞。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。例如,我们已经确定拉雷多石油公司的5个警告信号(1是重要的)您应该知道。
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来看看我们的净现金成长型股票独家名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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