Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (HKG:2007) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 81%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 64% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 50% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
Check out our latest analysis for Country Garden Holdings
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Country Garden Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.9% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 28% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 4.05.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SEHK:2007 Earnings Per Share Growth September 20th 2022
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Country Garden Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Country Garden Holdings' TSR of was a loss of 74% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 21% in the twelve months, Country Garden Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 63%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Country Garden Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
长期投资是必由之路,但这并不意味着你应该永远持有每一只股票。当我们看到其他投资者蒙受损失时,我们会受到打击。例如,我们同情任何被抓到持有碧桂园股份有限公司(HKG:2007)在这五年中,其股价暴跌了81%。一些最近的买家可能也在担心,该公司股价在去年下跌了64%。此外,它在大约四分之一的时间里下跌了50%。对于持有者来说,这并不是什么乐趣。我们注意到,该公司最近公布了业绩;市场并不高兴。你可以查看我们公司报告中的最新数字。在这种情况下,我们真的很同情股东。这很好地提醒了多样化的重要性,而且无论如何,值得记住的是,生活中有比金钱更重要的东西。
鉴于过去一周对股东的态度一直很严峻,让我们调查一下基本面,看看我们能学到什么。
看看我们对碧桂园的最新分析
虽然有效市场假说继续被一些人传授,但事实证明,市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价随时间的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对一家公司的态度随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化。
在股价下跌的五年里,碧桂园的每股收益(EPS)每年下降3.9%。读者应该注意到,在此期间,苹果股价以每年28%的速度下跌,比每股收益下跌得更快。这暗示这几天市场对该业务更为谨慎。这种不那么有利的情绪反映在其目前4.05的市盈率上。
该公司的每股收益(在一段时间内)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
联交所:2007年每股盈利增长2022年9月20日
很高兴看到,在过去的三个月里,出现了一些重大的内幕收购。这是一个积极的消息。另一方面,我们认为收入和收益趋势是衡量业务的更有意义的指标。在买卖股票之前,我们总是建议仔细检查一下历史增长趋势,可在此处找到。
那么总股东回报(TSR)呢?
更不用说碧桂园和他之间的区别了股东总回报(TSR)及其股价回报。可以说,TSR是一种更完整的回报计算方法,因为它计入了股息的价值(就像它们被再投资一样),以及向股东提供的任何贴现资本的假设价值。碧桂园的TSR在5年中亏损了74%。这并不像它的股价回报那么糟糕,因为它已经支付了股息。
不同的视角
虽然大盘在过去12个月里下跌了约21%,但碧桂园股东的表现更糟,下跌了63%。话虽如此,在下跌的市场中,一些股票不可避免地会被超卖。关键是要密切关注基本面的发展。遗憾的是,去年的业绩为糟糕的表现画上了句号,股东们在五年内面临着每年12%的总亏损。我们意识到,罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该“在街上血淋淋的时候买入”,但我们警告投资者,首先应该确保他们购买的是一家高质量的企业。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。即便如此,要知道碧桂园正在展示我们的投资分析中的4个警告信号,其中一条不应被忽视……
如果你喜欢和管理层一起买股票,那么你可能会喜欢这本书免费公司名单。(提示:内部人士一直在买入这些股票)。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。