M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NYSE, rising to highs of US$37.30 and falling to the lows of US$28.26. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether M.D.C. Holdings' current trading price of US$29.38 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at M.D.C. Holdings's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
View our latest analysis for M.D.C. Holdings
What Is M.D.C. Holdings Worth?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I've used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there's not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock's ratio of 3.25x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers' ratio of 7.04x, which means if you buy M.D.C. Holdings today, you'd be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe M.D.C. Holdings should be trading in this range, then there isn't much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that M.D.C. Holdings's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of M.D.C. Holdings look like?
NYSE:MDC Earnings and Revenue Growth September 19th 2022
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let's also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -17% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn't appear to be a driver for a buy decision for M.D.C. Holdings. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, MDC appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on MDC, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on MDC for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there's less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven't considered today, which can help gel your views on MDC should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with M.D.C. Holdings (including 2 which can't be ignored).
If you are no longer interested in M.D.C. Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
M.D.C.Holdings,Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:MDC)可能不是一只大盘股,但它在纽约证券交易所的股价在近几个月里出现了显著的波动,涨至37.30美元的高点,跌至28.26美元的低点。一些股价波动可以让投资者有更好的机会买入股票,并有可能以更低的价格买入。一个需要回答的问题是,M.D.C.Holdings目前29.38美元的交易价格是否反映了中型股的实际价值?或者,它目前被低估了,为我们提供了买入的机会?让我们看看M.D.C.Holdings基于最新财务数据的前景和价值,看看是否有任何推动价格变化的催化剂。
查看我们对M.D.C.Holdings的最新分析
M.D.C.控股公司值多少钱?
根据我的市盈率模型,该模型将公司的市盈率与行业平均水平进行了比较,股价似乎是稳定的。我之所以在这种情况下使用市盈率,是因为没有足够的可见性来预测其现金流。该股目前的市盈率为3.25倍,略低于业内同行7.04倍的市盈率,这意味着如果你今天买入M.D.C.Holdings,你将支付一个相当不错的价格。如果你认为M.D.C.Holdings的股价应该在这个范围内交易,那么从长远来看,该公司股价没有太大的增长空间,不会超过其他行业同行的水平。那么,未来还有机会低接买入吗?鉴于M.D.C.Holdings的股价波动相当大(即其价格走势相对于市场其他部分被放大),这可能意味着价格可能会下跌,给我们一个稍后买入的机会。这是基于其较高的贝塔系数,这是一个很好的股价波动指标。
M.D.C.Holdings的未来是什么样子的?
纽约证券交易所:MDC收益和收入增长2022年9月19日
寻求投资组合增长的投资者可能希望在购买一家公司的股票之前考虑其前景。以低廉的价格收购一家前景稳健的伟大公司永远是一笔不错的投资,所以让我们也来看看该公司的未来预期。然而,由于预计未来几年利润将出现负增长-17%,短期增长显然不会成为M.D.C.Holdings做出收购决定的驱动因素。这种确定性将风险-收益比例推向更高的风险。
这对你意味着什么
你是股东吗?目前,MDC似乎在行业市盈率附近交易,但考虑到未来负回报的不确定性,现在可能是降低投资组合风险的合适时机。对于你的总投资组合来说,你目前对这只股票的敞口是不是最好的?持有一只前景负面的股票的机会成本是否过高?在你对MDC做出决定之前,先看看它的基本面是否发生了变化。
你是潜在的投资者吗?如果你关注MDC已经有一段时间了,现在可能不是买入的最有利时机,因为它的交易价格在行业市盈率附近。这意味着,错误定价带来的好处较少。除此之外,负增长前景增加了持有该股的风险。然而,我们今天还没有考虑其他重要因素,如果价格波动低于行业市盈率,这些因素可以帮助你凝聚对MDC的看法。
因此,如果你想更深入地研究这只股票,考虑它面临的任何风险是至关重要的。为此,您应该了解4个警示标志我们已经发现了M.D.C.Holdings(包括2家不容忽视的公司)。
如果您对M.D.C.Holdings不再感兴趣,您可以使用我们的免费平台查看我们的其他50多只具有高增长潜力的股票。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。