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China Communications Construction (HKG:1800) Shareholders Have Endured a 52% Loss From Investing in the Stock Five Years Ago
China Communications Construction (HKG:1800) Shareholders Have Endured a 52% Loss From Investing in the Stock Five Years Ago
Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. Zooming in on an example, the China Communications Construction Company Limited (HKG:1800) share price dropped 63% in the last half decade. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 12% in the last 90 days. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 9.8% in the same timeframe.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
Check out our latest analysis for China Communications Construction
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, China Communications Construction actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 2.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:1800 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 16th 2022We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think China Communications Construction will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for China Communications Construction the TSR over the last 5 years was -52%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that China Communications Construction returned a loss of 12% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 20%. What is more upsetting is the 9% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. While the losses are slowing we doubt many shareholders are happy with the stock. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with China Communications Construction (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
But note: China Communications Construction may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
从统计学上讲,长期投资是一项有利可图的事业。但在此过程中,一些股票的表现将很糟糕。放大一个示例,中国交通建设股份有限公司(HKG:1800)股价在过去五年下跌了63%。对于长期持有者来说,这是一段不愉快的经历。股东们最近的表现更加艰难,股价在过去90天里下跌了12%。然而,有人可能会辩称,价格受到了大盘的影响,大盘在同一时间段内下跌了9.8%。
考虑到这一点,值得关注的是,该公司的潜在基本面是长期业绩的驱动力,还是存在一些差异。
看看我们对中国交通建设的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔的超级投资者沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性地反映一家企业的价值。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
不幸的是,在股价下滑的五年里,中国交通建设的每股收益(EPS)实际上以每年2.4%的速度增长。考虑到股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑,每股收益不是这段时间内业务表现的良好指南(可能是因为一次性的亏损或收益)。也有可能,此前市场非常乐观,因此尽管每股收益有所改善,但该股仍令人失望。
通过浏览这些数字,我们可以假设,五年前,市场曾预期会有更高的增长。话虽如此,我们可能会通过查看其他指标来更好地了解股票的走势。
我们注意到,股息一直保持健康,因此这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。我们目前还不清楚为什么股价会下跌,但进一步的研究可能会提供一些答案。
下图描述了收益和收入随时间的变化(通过单击图像来揭示确切的价值)。
联交所:2022年9月16日1800盈利及收入增长我们很高兴地报告,这位首席执行官的薪酬比类似资本公司的大多数首席执行官都要低。关注首席执行官的薪酬总是值得的,但更重要的问题是,该公司是否会在未来几年实现盈利增长。因此,看看分析师认为中国交通建设未来的收入(免费利润预测)很有意义。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。我们注意到,中国交通建设在过去5年的总回报率为-52%,好于上述股价回报率。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
尽管中国交通建设在过去12个月里亏损了12%,这很伤人,但大盘实际上更糟糕,亏损了20%。更令人沮丧的是,投资者在过去五年里遭受了9%的年损失。虽然亏损正在放缓,但我们怀疑有多少股东对该股感到满意。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了两个警告信号与中国交通建设(至少1人,这可能是严重的),了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
但请注意:中国交通建设可能不是最值得买入的股票。所以让我们来看看这个免费过去有盈利增长(以及进一步增长预测)的有趣公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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