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Why Shoucheng Holdings' (HKG:697) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Why Shoucheng Holdings' (HKG:697) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Even though Shoucheng Holdings Limited (HKG:697) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We think that investors might be worried about the foundations the earnings are built on.
Check out our latest analysis for Shoucheng Holdings
SEHK:697 Earnings and Revenue History September 15th 2022Zooming In On Shoucheng Holdings' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Shoucheng Holdings has an accrual ratio of 0.27 for the year to June 2022. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of HK$901.3m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through HK$826m in the last year. It's worth noting that Shoucheng Holdings generated positive FCF of HK$79m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Shoucheng Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by HK$254m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Shoucheng Holdings had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
Our Take On Shoucheng Holdings' Profit Performance
Shoucheng Holdings had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Shoucheng Holdings' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Shoucheng Holdings, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Shoucheng Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
Our examination of Shoucheng Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
即使寿成控股有限公司(HKG:697)最近公布了强劲的收益,但该股并没有做出太大的反应。我们认为,投资者可能担心盈利的基础。
查看我们对首诚控股的最新分析
联交所:697盈利及收入历史2022年9月15日放大首诚控股的收益
许多投资者都没有听说过现金流应计比率但它实际上是衡量一家公司在给定时期内自由现金流(FCF)支持公司利润的程度的有用指标。为了得到应计比率,我们首先从一个时期的利润中减去FCF,然后用这个数字除以该时期的平均运营资产。这一比率向我们展示了一家公司的利润超过其固定现金流的程度。
这意味着负的应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的要多。虽然应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们确实认为,当一家公司的应计比率相对较高时,这一点值得注意。引用勒维伦和雷苏泰克2014年的一篇论文,“应计利润较高的公司未来的利润往往较低”。
在截至2022年6月的一年中,寿成控股的应计比率为0.27。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远远低于其公布的利润。尽管该公司报告盈利9.013亿港元,但看看自由现金流就会发现,该公司去年实际上烧掉了8.26亿港元。值得注意的是,首城控股一年前产生了7900万港元的正FCF,所以至少他们过去做到了。然而,这并不是需要考虑的全部问题。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。对股东来说,好消息是,寿成控股去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕读数可能只是利润和FCF短期错配的一个例子。因此,一些股东可能希望在本年度实现更强劲的现金转换。
这可能会让你想知道,分析师对未来盈利能力的预测是什么。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于他们估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
异常项目对利润的影响
该公司去年有一些不同寻常的项目将利润提高了2.54亿港元,这一事实很可能在一定程度上解释了其应计比率如此之低的原因。虽然有更高的利润总是好事,但不寻常的东西带来的巨大贡献有时会挫伤我们的热情。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了统计,不寻常的项目在性质上是一次性的,这是非常常见的。考虑到这些提振被描述为“不寻常的”,这正如你所预期的那样。相对于截至2022年6月的利润,寿成控股的异常项目做出了相当大的贡献。在其他条件不变的情况下,这可能会使法定利润成为衡量潜在盈利能力的糟糕指标。
我们对寿成控股盈利表现的看法
寿成控股的应计比率较低,但它的利润确实得到了不寻常项目的提振。考虑到这一切,我们认为寿成控股的利润可能会给人一种过于慷慨的印象,表明其可持续的盈利水平。如果你真的想更深入地研究首诚控股,你还应该调查它目前面临的风险。当我们做研究时,我们发现首诚控股的2个警示标志(1不容忽视!)我们认为这值得你的全力关注。
我们对首诚控股的调查集中在某些因素上,这些因素可能会让它的收益看起来比实际情况更好。在此基础上,我们对此持怀疑态度。但还有很多其他方式可以让你了解一家公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济指标,而另一些人则喜欢“跟着钱走”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。所以你可能想看看这个免费拥有高股本回报率的公司的集合,或内部人士正在购买的这份股票清单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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