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Calculating The Fair Value Of Meituan (HKG:3690)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Meituan (HKG:3690)
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Meituan (HKG:3690) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Meituan
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥15.4b | CN¥28.6b | CN¥40.1b | CN¥51.0b | CN¥59.2b | CN¥66.1b | CN¥71.7b | CN¥76.4b | CN¥80.2b | CN¥83.4b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x8 | Analyst x8 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 15.95% | Est @ 11.63% | Est @ 8.61% | Est @ 6.49% | Est @ 5.01% | Est @ 3.97% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | CN¥14.4k | CN¥25.0k | CN¥32.8k | CN¥39.1k | CN¥42.4k | CN¥44.3k | CN¥45.0k | CN¥44.9k | CN¥44.1k | CN¥42.9k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥375b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥83b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.9%– 1.6%) = CN¥1.6t
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥1.6t÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= CN¥818b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥1.2t. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$178, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:3690 Discounted Cash Flow September 14th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Meituan as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.078. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Meituan, there are three essential elements you should assess:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Meituan has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for 3690's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于估算美团(HKG: 3690)作为投资机会的吸引力,方法是将预期的未来现金流折成今天的价值。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。任何有兴趣进一步了解内在价值的人都应该读一读 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
查看我们对美团的最新分析
逐步进行计算
我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
差价合约完全是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的想法,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折现才能得出现值估计:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | cn¥15.4b | cn¥28.6b | cn¥40.1b | cn¥51.0b | cn¥59.2b | cn¥66.1b | cn¥71.7b | cn¥76.4b | cn¥80.2b | cn¥83.4b |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x8 | 分析师 x8 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x2 | Est @ 15.95% | Est @ 11.63% | Est @ 8.61% | Est @ 6.49% | Est @ 5.01% | Est @ 3.97% |
现值(人民币,百万元)折现 @ 6.9% | cn¥14.4k | cn¥25.0k | cn¥32.8k | cn¥39.1k | cn¥42.4k | cn¥44.3k | cn¥45.0k | cn¥44.9k | cn¥44.1k | cn¥42.9k |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = cn¥375b
在计算了最初10年期内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终端价值,该值考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用了非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在本例中,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)来估算未来的增长。与10年的 “增长” 期一样,我们使用6.9%的股本成本将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。
终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) √ (r — g) = cn¥83b× (1 + 1.6%) ≥ (6.9% — 1.6%) = cn¥1.6t
终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= cn¥1.6t≥ (1 + 6.9%)10= cn¥818b
总价值是未来十年的现金流之和加上折后终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为1.2吨CN¥1.2t。最后一步是将股权价值除以已发行股票的数量。与目前的股价178港元相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了19%。但是,估值不是精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度,最终进入另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
SEHK: 3690 贴现现金流 2022 年 9 月 14 日重要假设
上面的计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果您不同意这些结果,可以自己进行计算,然后尝试假设。DCF也没有考虑行业可能的周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将美团视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.9%,这是基于1.078的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比的波动率的指标。我们的beta值取自全球同类公司的行业平均beta值,施加的上限在0.8到2.0之间,这对于稳定的业务来说是一个合理的区间。
后续步骤:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。差价合约模型不是投资估值的万能工具。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或被高估。例如,公司股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于美团来说,你应该评估三个基本要素:
- 风险: 例如,冒险——美团有 1 个警告标志 我们认为你应该知道。
- 管理:内部人士是否一直在提高股价,以利用市场对3690未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解有关首席执行官薪酬和治理因素的见解。
- 其他高质量的替代品: 你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还缺少什么!
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对联交所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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