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Is MTR Corporation Limited (HKG:66) Trading At A 29% Discount?
Is MTR Corporation Limited (HKG:66) Trading At A 29% Discount?
Does the September share price for MTR Corporation Limited (HKG:66) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for MTR
Is MTR Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) | HK$11.2b | HK$17.0b | HK$17.7b | HK$18.2b | HK$18.7b | HK$19.2b | HK$19.6b | HK$20.0b | HK$20.4b | HK$20.7b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 4.02% | Est @ 3.28% | Est @ 2.76% | Est @ 2.4% | Est @ 2.14% | Est @ 1.96% | Est @ 1.84% | Est @ 1.75% |
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% | HK$10.5k | HK$15.0k | HK$14.6k | HK$14.2k | HK$13.7k | HK$13.1k | HK$12.6k | HK$12.1k | HK$11.5k | HK$11.0k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$128b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$21b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.5%– 1.6%) = HK$424b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$424b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= HK$225b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$354b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$40.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 29% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SEHK:66 Discounted Cash Flow September 14th 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MTR as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.027. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For MTR, we've put together three further items you should assess:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for MTR we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does 66's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
港铁公司股份有限公司(HKG:66)9月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过获取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。在你认为你将无法理解它之前,只需继续阅读!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
请参阅我们对港铁的最新分析
港铁的价值是否公平?
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(港币,百万元) | 港币112亿元 | 港币170亿元 | 177亿港元 | 港币1820亿元 | 港币187亿元 | 港币192亿元 | 港币196亿元 | 港币200亿元 | 港币204亿元 | 港币207亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x2 | Est@4.02% | Est@3.28% | Est@2.76% | EST@2.4% | Est@2.14% | Est@1.96% | Est@1.84% | Est@1.75% |
现值(港币,百万元)贴现@6.5% | 港币10.5万元 | 港币15万元 | 港币1460万元 | 港币1420万元 | 港币13.70万元 | 港币1310万元 | 港币1260万元 | 港币1210万元 | 港币115万元 | 港币11.0K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=1,280亿港元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我们以6.5%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=港币210亿×(1+1.6%)?(6.5%-1.6%)=港币4240亿
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=4,240亿港元?(1+6.5%)10=2250亿港元
因此,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,未来现金流的现值为3540亿港元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。相对于目前40.5港元的股价,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,较目前的股价有29%的折让。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
联交所:66贴现现金流2022年9月14日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将港铁视为潜在股东,折现率使用股本成本,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了6.5%,这是基于杠杆率为1.027的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?至于地铁,我们另外列出了三个你应该评估的项目:
- 风险:我们认为您应该评估1个地铁警示标志在投资这家公司之前,我们已经做了标记。
- 未来收益:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,66的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对联交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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