Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Payoneer Global Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYO) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Payoneer Global
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$16.5m | US$27.7m | US$41.1m | US$55.2m | US$68.9m | US$81.2m | US$91.8m | US$100.8m | US$108.2m | US$114.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 96.72% | Est @ 68.29% | Est @ 48.38% | Est @ 34.45% | Est @ 24.7% | Est @ 17.87% | Est @ 13.09% | Est @ 9.75% | Est @ 7.4% | Est @ 5.76% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2% | US$15.5 | US$24.6 | US$34.3 | US$43.4 | US$51.0 | US$56.6 | US$60.3 | US$62.3 | US$63.0 | US$62.7 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$473m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$114m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.2%– 1.9%) = US$2.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)10= US$1.5b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$6.9, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGM:PAYO Discounted Cash Flow September 13th 2022
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Payoneer Global as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.004. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Payoneer Global, we've put together three pertinent aspects you should consider:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Payoneer Global (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PAYO's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将简单介绍一下一种估值方法,该方法用预期的未来现金流对支付宝全球公司(Payoneer Global Inc.)(股票代码:PAYO)的预期现金流进行折现,并将其折现为今天的价值,用来评估支付宝作为投资机会的吸引力。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。在你认为你将无法理解它之前,只需继续阅读!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对Payoneer Global的最新分析
模型
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 1650万美元 | 2770万美元 | 4110万美元 | 5520万美元 | 6890万美元 | 8120万美元 | 9180万美元 | 1.008亿美元 | 1.082亿美元 | 1.145亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@96.72% | Est@68.29% | Est@48.38% | Est@34.45% | EST@24.7% | Est@17.87% | Est@13.09% | Est@9.75% | EST@7.4% | Est@5.76% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@6.2% | 15.5美元 | 24.6美元 | 34.3美元 | 43.4美元 | 51.0美元 | 56.6美元 | 60.3美元 | 62.3美元 | 63.0美元 | 62.7美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=4.73亿美元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用6.2%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=1.14亿美元×(1+1.9%)?(6.2%-1.9%)=27亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=27亿美元?(1+6.2%)10=15亿美元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股本价值,在本例中为20亿美元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前6.9美元的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司的估值似乎略有高估。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
NasdaqGM:Payo贴现现金流2022年9月13日
重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Payoneer Global视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这次计算中,我们使用了6.2%,这是基于杠杆率为1.004的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要对一家公司进行评估的众多因素之一。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。我们能弄清楚为什么该公司的股价高于内在价值吗?对于Payoneer Global,我们总结了你应该考虑的三个相关方面:
- 风险:每家公司都有,我们已经发现了Payoneer Global的4个警告信号(其中1个不容忽视!)你应该知道。
- 管理:内部人士是否一直在提高股价,以利用市场对Payo未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解对CEO薪酬和治理因素的见解。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对纳斯达克指数中的每一只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。