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These 4 Measures Indicate That Henderson Land Development (HKG:12) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Henderson Land Development (HKG:12) Is Using Debt Extensively
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HKG:12) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Henderson Land Development
What Is Henderson Land Development's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Henderson Land Development had HK$157.5b of debt, up from HK$102.3b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have HK$14.0b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about HK$143.5b.
SEHK:12 Debt to Equity History September 13th 2022How Strong Is Henderson Land Development's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Henderson Land Development had liabilities of HK$63.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$134.5b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of HK$14.0b and HK$9.76b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total HK$174.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's huge HK$123.0b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
As it happens Henderson Land Development has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 15.5 but very strong interest coverage of 49.2. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Unfortunately, Henderson Land Development's EBIT flopped 19% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Henderson Land Development's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Henderson Land Development recorded free cash flow of 48% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Henderson Land Development's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Henderson Land Development to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Henderson Land Development (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。我们可以看到恒基地产股份有限公司(HKG:12)确实在其业务中使用债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。
什么时候债务是个问题?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
看看我们对恒基地产的最新分析
恒基地产的净负债是多少?
如下所示,截至2022年6月底,恒基地产的债务为1,575亿港元,高于一年前的1,023亿港元。单击图像了解更多详细信息。然而,它确实有140亿港元的现金抵消了这一影响,导致净债务约为1435亿港元。
联交所:12债转股历史2022年9月13日恒基地产的资产负债表有多强?
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,恒基地产有633亿港元的负债在12个月内到期,而在这之后还有1345亿港元的负债到期。另一方面,该公司有140亿港元的现金和97.6亿港元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债总额为1,740亿港元,比现金和短期应收账款的总和还要多。
当你考虑到这一缺口超过了该公司1230亿港元的巨额市值时,你很可能会倾向于专心审查资产负债表。假设,如果该公司被迫通过以当前股价筹集资金来偿还债务,将需要极大的稀释。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
碰巧的是,恒基地产的净债务与EBITDA的比率相当令人担忧,为15.5%,但利息覆盖率非常高,为49.2%。这意味着,除非该公司能够获得非常廉价的债务,否则未来的利息支出可能会增加。不幸的是,恒基地产的息税前利润在过去四个季度里暴跌了19%。如果这种下降得不到遏制,那么管理其债务将比溢价销售西兰花口味的冰淇淋更难。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定恒基地产未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。纵观最近三年,恒基地产的自由现金流占其息税前利润的48%,低于我们的预期。当涉及到偿还债务时,这并不是很好。
我们的观点
从表面上看,恒基地产的息税前利润增长率让我们对该股持怀疑态度,其净债务对EBITDA的吸引力并不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空荡荡的餐厅更诱人。但从好的方面来看,它的利息覆盖是一个好兆头,让我们更加乐观。我们非常清楚,由于恒基地产的资产负债表状况良好,我们认为其风险确实相当大。出于这个原因,我们对该股相当谨慎,我们认为股东应该密切关注其流动性。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。为此,您应该了解2个警告标志我们已经发现了恒基地产(包括1名潜在的严重威胁)。
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来看看我们的净现金成长型股票独家名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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