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Does China Railway Group (SHSE:601390) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does China Railway Group (SHSE:601390) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, China Railway Group Limited (SHSE:601390) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for China Railway Group
What Is China Railway Group's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 China Railway Group had debt of CN¥363.9b, up from CN¥283.3b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥196.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥167.9b.
SHSE:601390 Debt to Equity History September 12th 2022How Healthy Is China Railway Group's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Railway Group had liabilities of CN¥854.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥281.2b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥196.0b and CN¥350.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥588.8b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥137.2b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, China Railway Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
China Railway Group's net debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 29.4 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. If China Railway Group can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 13% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Railway Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, China Railway Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, China Railway Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider China Railway Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for China Railway Group (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
马克斯说得很好,他不是担心股价波动,而是我担心的是永久亏损的可能性……我认识的每个实际投资者都担心。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。重要的是中国中铁集团有限公司(上海证券交易所:601390)确实背负着债务。但股东是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?
为什么债务会带来风险?
债务帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是用新资本还是用自由现金流。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,一种更常见(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久性地稀释股东。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司对债务管理得相当好--并对自己有利。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对中铁集团的最新分析
中国中铁集团的债务是什么?
下图显示,截至2022年6月,中国中铁集团的债务为3639亿加元,高于一年内的2833亿加元。点击查看更多详情。然而,由于其现金储备为人民币1960亿元,其净债务较少,约为人民币1679亿元。
上证综指:601390债转股历史2022年9月12日中国中铁集团的资产负债表健康程度如何?
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,中铁集团有8543亿元的负债在12个月内到期,还有2812亿元的负债在12个月内到期。另一方面,一年内有1,960亿元现金和3,508亿元应收账款到期。因此,其负债比现金和(近期)应收账款之和高出5888亿加元。
这一赤字给这家1372亿元人民币的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个庞然大物耸立在凡人之上。因此,我们肯定认为股东需要密切关注这一事件。归根结底,如果债权人要求偿还债务,中国中铁集团可能需要进行一次重大的资本重组。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
中国中铁集团的净债务是其EBITDA的3.1倍,这是一个相当可观但仍然合理的杠杆率。但它的息税前利润大约是利息支出的29.4倍,这意味着该公司并没有真的付出高昂的成本来维持这样的债务水平。即使低成本被证明是不可持续的,这也是一个好迹象。如果中国中铁集团能够保持去年13%的息税前利润增长速度,那么它的债务负担将更容易管理。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定中国中铁集团能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们总是检查EBIT中有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去的三年里,中国中铁集团烧掉了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况会在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着它使用债务的风险更大。
我们的观点
从表面上看,中铁集团将息税前利润转换为自由现金流让我们对这只股票持怀疑态度,其总负债水平并不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空荡荡的餐厅更诱人。但至少它在用息税前利润支付利息支出方面相当不错;这是令人鼓舞的。我们非常清楚,鉴于中国中铁资产负债表的健康状况,我们认为该集团的风险确实相当大。出于这个原因,我们对该股相当谨慎,我们认为股东应该密切关注其流动性。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们已经确定中国中铁集团的2个警示标志(1是关于的)你应该知道。
归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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