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Guoco Group (HKG:53) Earnings and Shareholder Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for the Last Three Years, but the Stock Climbs 4.0% This Past Week
Guoco Group (HKG:53) Earnings and Shareholder Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for the Last Three Years, but the Stock Climbs 4.0% This Past Week
For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Guoco Group Limited (HKG:53) shareholders, since the share price is down 38% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 3.1%.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for Guoco Group
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Guoco Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 26% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 15% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:53 Earnings Per Share Growth September 12th 2022Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guoco Group, it has a TSR of -33% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Guoco Group shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 11% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 22%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Guoco Group (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对于许多投资者来说,选股的主要着眼点是产生高于整体市场的回报。但选股的风险是,你可能会买入表现不佳的公司。不幸的是,从长远来看,情况就是这样国科集团有限公司(HKG:53)股东,因为股价在过去三年下跌了38%,远低于约3.1%的市场跌幅。
尽管过去一周对股东来说更令人安心,但他们在过去三年仍处于亏损状态,所以让我们看看基础业务是否对股价下跌负有责任。
查看我们对国科集团的最新分析
虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映的是投资者情绪,而不仅仅是潜在的企业表现。评估围绕一家公司的情绪变化的一个有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
过去三年,国科集团的每股收益以每年26%的复合速度下降。相比之下,15%的复合年度股价跌幅没有每股收益下跌那么严重。因此,尽管之前令人失望,但从长远来看,股东们必须对情况会有所改善有一定的信心。
您可以在下面看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(通过单击图像来了解确切的值)。
联交所:53每股盈利增长2022年9月12日在买卖股票之前,我们总是建议仔细研究一下历史增长趋势,可以在这里找到。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以国油集团为例,它过去3年的总资产收益率为-33%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但国油集团的股东们可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月的11%的亏损没有市场亏损22%左右那么糟糕。不幸的是,去年的表现可能预示着尚未解决的挑战,因为它比过去五年3%的年化损失更糟糕。虽然罗斯柴尔德男爵确实会告诉投资者“在街上有血的时候买入,即使血是你自己的”,但买家需要仔细检查数据,才能确信业务本身是稳健的。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。比如风险。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现国科集团的4个警示标志(其中1个与我们坐在一起不太好!)你应该知道。
如果你喜欢和管理层一起买股票,那么你可能会喜欢这本书免费公司名单。(提示:内部人士一直在买入这些股票)。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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