Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Limited (HKG:6989) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 22% in the last month. But that is minimal compensation for the share price under-performance over the last year. After all, the share price is down 38% in the last year, significantly under-performing the market.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
Check out our latest analysis for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 19%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
We don't see any weakness in the Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:6989 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 9th 2022
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group, it has a TSR of -33% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We doubt Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group shareholders are happy with the loss of 33% over twelve months (even including dividends). That falls short of the market, which lost 23%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. With the stock down 7.8% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
卓越商业物业及设施管理集团有限公司(HKG:6989)股东应该很高兴看到股价在过去一个月上涨了22%。但这是对过去一年股价表现不佳的最低补偿。毕竟,该公司股价在过去一年下跌了38%,表现明显逊于大盘。
尽管过去一周对股东来说更令人放心,但他们在过去一年仍然处于亏损状态,所以让我们看看基础业务是否对股价下跌负有责任。
查看我们对卓越商业物业和设施管理集团的最新分析
虽然有效市场假说继续被一些人传授,但事实证明,市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
不幸的是,在卓越商业地产和设施管理集团股价下跌的12个月里,它的每股收益(EPS)实际上提高了19%。可能是股价之前被过度炒作了。
在这一年中,每股收益和股价之间的背离相当明显。但我们可能会发现一些不同的衡量标准可以更好地解释股价走势。
我们没有看到卓越商业地产和设施管理集团的股息有任何疲软,因此稳定的派息并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。从我们看到的情况来看,营收相当持平,所以这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。当然,这可能只是因为它根本没有达到市场的普遍预期。
您可以在下图中看到收益和收入随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切的值)。
联交所:6989盈利及收入增长2022年9月9日
我们认为,内部人士在过去一年进行了大量收购,这是积极的。即便如此,未来的收益对现有股东是否赚钱将重要得多。您可以在这里看到分析师对卓越商业地产和设施管理集团的预测互动未来利润预估图表。
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以卓越商业物业及设施管理集团为例,过去1年的总资产收益率为-33%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
我们怀疑卓越商业地产和设施管理集团的股东对12个月来33%的损失(甚至包括股息)感到满意。这一数字低于大盘,大盘下跌23%。毫无疑问,这令人失望,但在一个更强劲的市场中,该股很可能表现得更好。过去三个月,该公司股价下跌了7.8%,市场似乎并不认为该公司已经解决了所有问题。基本上,大多数投资者应该对买入表现不佳的股票保持警惕,除非业务本身已经明显改善。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与卓越商业物业和设施管理集团合作,并了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
还有很多其他公司让内部人士买进股票。你很可能会这么做不想怀念这一切吗?免费内部人士正在收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。