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Is China Molybdenum (HKG:3993) A Risky Investment?
Is China Molybdenum (HKG:3993) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (HKG:3993) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for China Molybdenum
How Much Debt Does China Molybdenum Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that China Molybdenum had CN¥48.3b in debt in June 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥38.2b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥10.0b.
SEHK:3993 Debt to Equity History September 4th 2022How Strong Is China Molybdenum's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that China Molybdenum had liabilities of CN¥48.9b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥50.4b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥38.2b and CN¥4.41b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥56.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
China Molybdenum has a very large market capitalization of CN¥97.0b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
China Molybdenum has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.53. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 83.2 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. The good news is that China Molybdenum has increased its EBIT by 5.4% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China Molybdenum's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last two years, China Molybdenum reported free cash flow worth 15% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for China Molybdenum was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to convert EBIT to free cash flow. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about China Molybdenum's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of China Molybdenum's earnings per share history for free.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
有人说,作为投资者,波动性而不是债务是考虑风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的同义词。”当我们想到一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看看它对债务的使用,因为债务超负荷会导致破产。和许多其他公司一样 洛阳钼业股份有限公司 (HKG: 3993)利用债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?
债务何时会成为问题?
债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但是如果企业无法还清贷款人,那么债务就任由他们摆布。归根结底,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司为了控制债务,必须以低廉的股价稀释股东。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们研究债务水平时,我们首先将现金和债务水平放在一起考虑。
查看我们对中国钼业的最新分析
中国钼业背负了多少债务?
您可以点击下图了解更多详情,该图表显示中国钼业在2022年6月的债务为48.3亿元人民币;与前一年大致相同。但是,它也有38.2亿元人民币的现金,因此其净负债为100亿元人民币。
香港交易所:3993 债务转股权历史记录 2022 年 9 月 4 日中钼的资产负债表有多强?
最新的资产负债表数据显示,中国钼业在一年内到期的负债为48.9亿元人民币,此后到期的负债为504亿元人民币。另一方面,它有一年内到期的现金为38.2亿元人民币,应收账款为44.1亿元人民币。因此,其负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出567亿元人民币。
中国钼业的市值非常大,为970亿元人民币,因此,如果有需要,它很可能会筹集现金来改善其资产负债表。但很明显,我们绝对应该仔细研究它能否在不稀释的情况下管理债务。
我们通过以下方法来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力:将其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),并计算其利息和税前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的难易程度。这样,我们既考虑债务的绝对数量,也考虑为债务支付的利率。
中国钼业的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率很低,仅为0.53。而且其息税前利润涵盖了高达83.2倍的利息支出。因此,我们对其超保守的债务使用持相当宽松的态度。好消息是,中国钼业在十二个月内将其息税前利润增加了5.4%,这应该可以缓解人们对债务偿还的担忧。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,未来的收益比什么都重要,将决定中国钼业未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法削减债务。因此,我们总是检查息税前利润中有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去的两年中,中国钼业公布的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的15%,这确实很低。这种低迷的现金转换水平削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。
我们的观点
在资产负债表方面,中国钼业最显著的利好因素是,它似乎能够自信地用息税前利润来支付利息支出。但是,我们的其他观察结果并不那么令人振奋。例如,要将息税前利润转换为自由现金流,似乎必须付出一些努力。纵观所有这些数据,我们对中钼的债务水平感到有些谨慎。尽管我们意识到债务可以提高股本回报率,但我们建议股东密切关注其债务水平,以免债务增加。除了大多数其他指标外,我们认为重要的是要追踪每股收益的增长速度(如果有的话)。如果你也意识到了这一点,那你很幸运,因为今天你可以免费查看中国钼业每股收益历史的交互式图表。
如果你有兴趣投资那些可以在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,那就看看这个 免费的 资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章无意提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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