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Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862) After Its Latest Results
Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862) After Its Latest Results
Last week saw the newest interim earnings release from Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of CN¥17b being 9.6% less than what the analysts had been modelling. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Haidilao International Holding after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Haidilao International Holding
SEHK:6862 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 2nd 2022Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Haidilao International Holding's 28 analysts is for revenues of CN¥40.0b in 2022, which would reflect a modest 5.9% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Haidilao International Holding forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.15 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥44.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.20 in 2022. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers as well.
What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 12% to HK$18.08, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Haidilao International Holding at HK$22.20 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$12.67. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Haidilao International Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 30% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Haidilao International Holding.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Haidilao International Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Haidilao International Holding going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Haidilao International Holding you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
上周发布了最新的中期收益报告,海底捞股份有限公司。(HKG:6862),这是该公司打造更强大业务之旅中的一个重要里程碑。结果总体上相当疲软,170亿加元的收入比分析师预测的要低9.6%。分析师通常会在每一份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的担忧需要注意。读者会很高兴地知道,我们汇总了最新的法定预测,看看分析师们在最新结果公布后是否改变了对海底捞的看法。
查看我们对海底捞的最新分析
联交所:6862盈利及收入增长2022年9月2日考虑到最新的业绩,海底捞的28位分析师目前的共识是,2022年的收入将达到人民币40亿元,这将反映出该公司过去12个月的销售额略有增长5.9%。盈利预计将有所改善,海底捞预计将报告每股0.15元人民币的法定利润。在这份收益报告之前,分析师们一直预测2022年收入为447亿加元,每股收益为0.20加元。在这些业绩公布后,市场人气似乎大幅下降,营收预期大幅下调,每股收益数字也出现了相当严重的下降。
最出人意料的是,普遍的目标价上涨了12%,至18.08港元,这强烈意味着下调预期只是一个暂时的短暂现象。然而,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时,也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。目前,最乐观的分析师对海底捞的估值为每股22.20港元,而最悲观的分析师对其估值为12.67港元。这些目标价表明,分析师对该业务确实有一些不同的看法,但估计的差异还不足以向我们表明,一些人押注于大获全胜或彻底失败。
当然,看待这些预测的另一种方式是将它们放在与行业本身相反的背景下。很明显,人们预计海底捞的收入增长将大幅放缓,截至2022年底的收入预计将按年率计算增长12%。相比之下,过去三年的历史增长率为22%。与该行业的其他公司(与分析师的预测)相比,这些公司的总收入预计将以每年30%的速度增长。因此,很明显,虽然收入增长预计会放缓,但整个行业的增长速度预计也会快于海底捞。
底线
最重要的是,分析师们下调了他们的每股收益预期,表明业绩公布后,市场人气明显下降。不幸的是,他们也下调了收入预期,我们的数据表明,收入预计会比整个行业表现得更差。即便如此,每股收益对企业的内在价值更为重要。目标价格也有了很大的提高,分析师们明显感觉到该业务的内在价值正在改善。
考虑到这一点,我们不会太快对海底捞下结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。我们有海底捞到2024年的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
那么风险呢?每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现海底捞的1个警示标志你应该知道。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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